Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Who's the NL MVP?

While I rant at times about the useless stats that get thrown around in professional commentary such as winning percentage with a full moon, completion percentage against left handed corners, etc.; there are others that we live and die by as sports fans. Turnover ratio in football, shooting percentage in basketball, batting average in baseball, hot dogs per minute in professional eating. It is with the most essential baseball stats in mind, that I present the case for each of the three primary MVP candidates in the National League.

1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Utley is having a career year and it's only the start of June. With another home run tonight, Utley brought his MLB leading total to 21 home runs to compliment his .320 batting average and NL-leading 52 RBI. Utley is also slugging an impressive .680 and is the driving force behind the first place Phillies. While Utley's success translates very well into numbers, he is also carrying the Phillies to victories right now and is covering for some of his slumping teammates, like Ryan Howard who has 80 strikeouts and a .209 batting average.

2. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
While Houston isn't enjoying the same success as Philadelphia, Berkman may be playing an even larger part in his team's results than Chase Utley. With a .385 batting average, Berkman is showing he's not limited to pure power productions and the "Big Puma" is living up to his reputation of driving the ball deep. With 17 home runs and 47 RBI, he trails only the aforementioned Utley for the national league lead. Berkman is also showing his versatility by stealing 10 bases already, ranking him in the top 10 in nearly every measurable category on offense. To pose himself as a triple crown threat, Berkman also ranks second in batting average behind our third legitimate MVP contender, Chipper Jones.

3. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Chipper Jones is batting .407. I don't know how much I need to say beyond that. It is getting a little too late in the season to be batting over .400 and Chipper even has Tony Gwinn talking up his accomplishments to this point. If it weren't for Chipper, the ridiculous numbers being put up by Lance Berkman would be shining even brighter. While Jones' average gets the spotlight, he has still driven 12 home runs and batted in 35 RBI. As the only previous MVP winner, Jones can pull from his experience in 1999 on how to maintain numbers down the stretch as in that year he hit 45 HRs, 110 RBI and batted .319.

The season is still young and the massive numbers always have a tendency to level out during the course of a 162 game schedule, but to this point Utley, Berkman and Jones have looked incredibly impressive and each deserving of the distinguishing award. Before these three become complacent however, there are a few more players on the fringe that will be looking to jump into the mix.

In no particular order:
-Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Rameriez
-Brandon Webb
-Albert Puljos, Ryan Ludwick
-Dan Uggla
-Ryan Braun

At this point in the season, I can't help but vote for Berkman. I know the Astros aren't leading the division, but Berkman has looked like a men among boys at this point and is getting it done in all areas of his game. That said, Utley is heating up more than slowing down and Chipper Jones will not go quietly, especially if he can maintain his insane batting average for much of the season. The Cubs are the best team in baseball and have three talented hitters in addition to Fukudome, Soto and Theriot who are all contributing quietly. Dan Uggla's pursuit may be over if the Marlins can't stay competitive and slip down the standings in the NL East. Ryan Braun is picking up where he left off a year ago but is the victim of a mediocre team with relatively no national press. Brandon Webb has the supreme disadvantage of being a pitcher while Albert Puljos and Ryan Ludwick aren't standing out against the likes of the top three players listed.

My sleeper pick for the MVP has to be Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano is looking to improve to 8-2 tonight and is batting .366 on the season now. There are few pitchers that present nearly the type of threat that Zambrano represent at the plate each at bat.

The season is young and the NL MVP is certain to finish the year with some amazing statistics. Hopefully baseball gets the sport cleaned up so these numbers don't get marked with an asterisk that shouldn't apply.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

MLB Power Rankings - Top 10

With a new month means new Power Rankings. In parenthesis behind each team is their position in the last Top 10.

1. Chicago Cubs (3)
Chicago is led by its strong starting rotation as Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster both have collected 7 wins and have sub-3 ERAs on the season. Carlos Marmol is looking like the best setup man in the big leagues right now with a 1.75 ERA and 54 strikeouts in only 36 innings pitched. The biggest concern I have for the Cubs at this point is their poor road record. At 25-8 at the friendly confines this season, Chicago holds the major's best home record by a healthy margin. However, at 10-13 on the road the Cubs have looked like a very different team. While early in the season many teams naturally struggle a bit on the road, the Cubs disparity between home and road performance will have to lessen during a big late summer road trip.

Interesting Statistic: Carlos Zambrano is now hitting .316 with a .447 slugging percentage, higher than Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Derek Jeter and Travis Hafner.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
Philadelphia was one of my favorites coming into the season and they have done little to dissuade my arguments thus far. The Phillies are looking very strong and Chase Utley is showing no signs of slowing down. While Philadelphia may not have the type of starting rotation of most World Series contenders, they do make up for it with a potent offense. In a previous ranking I placed the Phillies 5th despite being 17-14. I'm proud to say the team has been climbing the standings since and is now comfortably 7 games above .500 and only 1/2 game back of NL East Leaders Florida.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (4)
St. Louis entered the season as something of an underdog as they were off the radar for most analysts. However, Albert Puljos is quietly putting together a strong season and starters Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer are carrying the load, combining for a 10-3 record and looking like they can maintain their fast start for the remainder of the season. For as strong as the Cubs are playing, St. Louis is still only 2 1/2 back.

4. Boston Red Sox (8)
While the Red Sox haven't been playing their best baseball of late, the team still has the Manny Rameriez & David Ortiz duo in the middle of the lineup and a strong pitching staff. However, the team slipped in my rankings due to the injury/fatigue suffered by ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. While the Red Sox do have other talented arms, Matsuzaka is clearly the class of their rotation and was on pace to battle Cliff Lee of Cleveland for the right to start the All-Star game. If he comes back healthy, Boston will certainly get a boost, but without him they may struggle to hold off Toronto.

5. Los Angeles Angels (2)
I had no choice but to drop the Angels in the rankings this month, despite putting together another winning month in May. While the Angels are still finding a way to win, the team's offensive productivity has crawled to a halt. Vladimir Guerrero's production has been incredibly limited this season, hitting only .246 with 7 HR. Previously one of the most feared hitters in the game, Guerrero is striking out over 17% of at bats and is showing even less discipline at the plate than normal.

6. Tampa Bay Rays (NR)
Be careful not to let the word get out, but Tampa is actually putting together a solid season. While many experts are calling the Rays the best team in the American League, and certainly their record supports that, the team likely does not have the type of offensive fire power necessary to hold off the Red Sox all season. Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir is a ridiculous 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA in 6 starts. BJ Upton continues to look like an All-Star and Carl Crawford is dangerous at the plate and on the base paths. Upton and Crawford already combine for 32 steals in 41 attempts. The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics have proven in the past that timely hitting, strong defense and aggressive base running can keep a team in any game, but I think the Rays still might be a season too early for this type of breakout year.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
The Diamondbacks stumbled from the No. 1 spot in last month's rankings all the way to 7. While some are placing the Diamondbacks even lower on their respective lists, I'm not that quick to call the first month a fluke. Arizona still has dynamic pitching, and while went 6-8 over the last month, the three are far too talented to struggle over the course of a season.

Interesting Statistic: Arizona leads the Majors with 21 triples and ranks 5th in runs scored (282).

8. Chicago White Sox (NR)
In a division that should have featured the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians running away from the rest of the American League, Chicago has quietly built a 2 game lead over the Minnesota Twins. The White Sox rank second in team ERA at 3.35 on the year and surprise player Carlos Quentin is looking like an MVP contender at this point in the season. If Paul Konerko (.206 batting average) and Jim Thome (.207) can wake up and start hitting the ball the surprising White Sox will carry the division lead late into the season.

9. Florida Marlins (NR)
The Marlins, much like the Rays, are an unlikely division leader this late into the season. In the competitive AL & NL East, the Florida teams don't have the type of star power that their division rivals hold, yet they continue to put notches in the win column. Dan Uggla is putting together a career year with 129 total bases and 16 home runs already, despite 60 strikeouts.

10. Toronto Blue Jays (6)
I initially planned on having the Athletics in the No. 10 spot on these rankings, but that was before the Blue Jays out scored the A's 15-4 and took 2 of 3 in their recent series. Also with AJ Burnett lowering his ERA with each of his last 5 starts and Roy Halladay continuing his long inning wins, the Jays look like contenders in the AL East.

And without explanation, the Bottom 5. Way to go NL West.

26. San Francisco Giants
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Seattle Mariners
29. Colorado Rockies
30. San Diego Padres