The Lock - Week 1

Each week at Sportsomniac we will give you the locks of the week as well as the biggest betting coin flip, the underdog getting too many points, and the game with the most potential for outright upset.

The Locks:
New York Jets -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets have two big things the Dolphins don't. The first is a talented offensive line, and the second is a hall of fame quarterback. While this game is being played in Miami, the Jets will have all the momentum as the team gets behind veteran signal caller Brett Favre and moves the ball with ease against the soft Dolphins defense.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 at Cleveland Browns
After a 10-6 season the Cleveland Browns are a trendy pick this NFL season, but the Cowboys are the real deal. Dallas looks sharp and will come out with something to prove in week one. Again expect the road team to lock this one up early.

The Coin Flip:
Buffalo -1 vs Seattle Seahawks
While no games this week are a true coin flip we'll look at the line with the fewest points, Seattle vs Buffalo where the Bills are favored by 1 point at home. Buffalo is improved coming into 2008 and were it not for the advent of the Jets, the Bills would be a likely playoff sleeper for most analysts this season. While all that may be true, Seattle is simply the better team in this matchup. Buffalo is improved, but the baseline was a 30th ranked offense that scored only 15.8 points per game in 2007 and Seattle will score 20+ with ease. Look for Seattle to steal one on the road in our first coin flip game of 2008.

Take the Points:
Indianapolis Colts -9.5 vs Chicago Bears
While few are doubting the Colts to win this game, and many are taking them in a blowout, I am less convinced this game is going to get away from the Bears. Chicago's defense has looked poor in the preseason and Kyle Orton is no Peyton Manning, but the Colts have had relatively little time together as a full starting unit and Chicago rarely lets games get out of hand. I'm calling for a Colts win but for the Bears to cover.

The Upset:
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at San Francisco 49ers
With the recent shakeup at quarterback I was surprised to see the line fall where it did for this game. Both sides have new quarterbacks and while the 49ers don't have the same weapons in the passing game, they do have Frank Gore who has dominated the Cardinals over his short career. San Francisco won both meetings in 2007 and I expect them to pull the upset and get the outright win against Arizona

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

NFL Power Rankings

Tonight kicks off the new NFL season and with it comes the first installment of the NFL Power Rankings.

The Top Ten
1. New England Patriots - While the team suffered a historic collapse in the Super Bowl that had Giants fans and the 1975 Dolphins all popping champagne, they're still the most ready to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

2. Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys look great on paper with a dynamic offense and a strong defensive secondary. Expect the 'boys to dominate the NFC and win the second toughest division in football.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning & Marvin Harrison are both healthy and Joseph Addai doesn't get the credit he deserves (much like Edge was underrated in his time in Indianapolis). While the team has some questions on the offensive line, Peyton runs the best play action in football and the Colts will again be successful, to the tune of 12-4.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars - When I said the NFC East was the second toughest division in football it is behind the AFC South. David Garrard was sensational a year ago and the addition of Jerry Porter should give him a reasonable target to throw to. Jones-Drew & Fred Taylor are the type of one-two punch rivaled by few teams in the league. Jacksonville's defense is scary enough that even if Garrard doesn't put up numbers like last season, the team is still a lock for the playoffs.

5. San Diego Chargers - While many are calling the Chargers the best team in football, I'm not entirely sold due to Phillip Rivers not looking like an elite quarterback and Shawne Merriman's injury. San Diego does have the benefit of playing the Broncos, Raiders & Chiefs twice which should mean a 5-1 or better divisional record.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers - Roethlisberger and company look sharp this season and the addition of Rashard Mendenhall gives the team a Bettis-like goal line running back. Expect the Steelers to be the true class of the AFC North, and not the Cleveland Browns.

7. Seattle Seahawks - It's a big drop from the class of the NFC (Dallas) to the next level, but Seattle leads the rest of the pack. With one of the best defenses in football and an epic 12th-man in the stands, Seattle will be ready for a division title in the NFC West.

8. New Orleans Saints - While a lot of people see Tampa Bay as the division winner, New Orleans is the class of the division. Drew Brees has the second best offense in the NFC at his disposal and the defense is strong enough to make stops when needed.

9. Green Bay Packers - While Minnesota is the favorite to win the North in many rankings, Green Bay still has a great defense and talented receivers. Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like Brett Favre, but he's looked like the best QB in the division already (Sorry Kitna fans, the guy is going to throw 20+ INTs again this year and Jackson & Orton aren't even in the discussion).

10. Philadelphia Eagles - While many will be surprised that the Eagles, and not the Giants, are the second best team in the division, a simple look at the rosters will tell the story. The Giants were great last season out of getting production from unlikely sources, but the well is starting to run dry and the Eagles are ready to return to the playoffs.

Bottom Five
28. Detroit Lions - Despite a perfect preseason, the Lions still don't have what it takes to win eight games, even in the NFC North. Questions on both sides of the ball abound and Rudi Johnson is far from the savior the team needs.

29. Miami Dolphins - While I like the Jake Long draft pick and addition of Chad Pennington, the Dolphins are still the worst team in a very difficult division.

30. St. Louis Rams - I'm done believing in the Rams the same way Lions fans are tired of being let down. St. Louis is going to struggle on the offensive line and the defense is questionable at best.

31. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have a lot of young talent and a few valuable veterans, but the team that once had the best offensive line and rushing attack in football will not be in that same ballpark. Expect the Chiefs to battle Oakland for the bottom spot in the AFC West.

32. Atlanta Falcons - While I like the future potential of Matt Ryan, he is in a spot right now where he can't be successful. The line is tough at the defense is spotty. Hopefully Ryan doesn't suffer a David Carr type of rookie season.

Who's the NL MVP?

While I rant at times about the useless stats that get thrown around in professional commentary such as winning percentage with a full moon, completion percentage against left handed corners, etc.; there are others that we live and die by as sports fans. Turnover ratio in football, shooting percentage in basketball, batting average in baseball, hot dogs per minute in professional eating. It is with the most essential baseball stats in mind, that I present the case for each of the three primary MVP candidates in the National League.

1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Utley is having a career year and it's only the start of June. With another home run tonight, Utley brought his MLB leading total to 21 home runs to compliment his .320 batting average and NL-leading 52 RBI. Utley is also slugging an impressive .680 and is the driving force behind the first place Phillies. While Utley's success translates very well into numbers, he is also carrying the Phillies to victories right now and is covering for some of his slumping teammates, like Ryan Howard who has 80 strikeouts and a .209 batting average.

2. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
While Houston isn't enjoying the same success as Philadelphia, Berkman may be playing an even larger part in his team's results than Chase Utley. With a .385 batting average, Berkman is showing he's not limited to pure power productions and the "Big Puma" is living up to his reputation of driving the ball deep. With 17 home runs and 47 RBI, he trails only the aforementioned Utley for the national league lead. Berkman is also showing his versatility by stealing 10 bases already, ranking him in the top 10 in nearly every measurable category on offense. To pose himself as a triple crown threat, Berkman also ranks second in batting average behind our third legitimate MVP contender, Chipper Jones.

3. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Chipper Jones is batting .407. I don't know how much I need to say beyond that. It is getting a little too late in the season to be batting over .400 and Chipper even has Tony Gwinn talking up his accomplishments to this point. If it weren't for Chipper, the ridiculous numbers being put up by Lance Berkman would be shining even brighter. While Jones' average gets the spotlight, he has still driven 12 home runs and batted in 35 RBI. As the only previous MVP winner, Jones can pull from his experience in 1999 on how to maintain numbers down the stretch as in that year he hit 45 HRs, 110 RBI and batted .319.

The season is still young and the massive numbers always have a tendency to level out during the course of a 162 game schedule, but to this point Utley, Berkman and Jones have looked incredibly impressive and each deserving of the distinguishing award. Before these three become complacent however, there are a few more players on the fringe that will be looking to jump into the mix.

In no particular order:
-Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Rameriez
-Brandon Webb
-Albert Puljos, Ryan Ludwick
-Dan Uggla
-Ryan Braun

At this point in the season, I can't help but vote for Berkman. I know the Astros aren't leading the division, but Berkman has looked like a men among boys at this point and is getting it done in all areas of his game. That said, Utley is heating up more than slowing down and Chipper Jones will not go quietly, especially if he can maintain his insane batting average for much of the season. The Cubs are the best team in baseball and have three talented hitters in addition to Fukudome, Soto and Theriot who are all contributing quietly. Dan Uggla's pursuit may be over if the Marlins can't stay competitive and slip down the standings in the NL East. Ryan Braun is picking up where he left off a year ago but is the victim of a mediocre team with relatively no national press. Brandon Webb has the supreme disadvantage of being a pitcher while Albert Puljos and Ryan Ludwick aren't standing out against the likes of the top three players listed.

My sleeper pick for the MVP has to be Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano is looking to improve to 8-2 tonight and is batting .366 on the season now. There are few pitchers that present nearly the type of threat that Zambrano represent at the plate each at bat.

The season is young and the NL MVP is certain to finish the year with some amazing statistics. Hopefully baseball gets the sport cleaned up so these numbers don't get marked with an asterisk that shouldn't apply.

MLB Power Rankings - Top 10

With a new month means new Power Rankings. In parenthesis behind each team is their position in the last Top 10.

1. Chicago Cubs (3)
Chicago is led by its strong starting rotation as Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster both have collected 7 wins and have sub-3 ERAs on the season. Carlos Marmol is looking like the best setup man in the big leagues right now with a 1.75 ERA and 54 strikeouts in only 36 innings pitched. The biggest concern I have for the Cubs at this point is their poor road record. At 25-8 at the friendly confines this season, Chicago holds the major's best home record by a healthy margin. However, at 10-13 on the road the Cubs have looked like a very different team. While early in the season many teams naturally struggle a bit on the road, the Cubs disparity between home and road performance will have to lessen during a big late summer road trip.

Interesting Statistic: Carlos Zambrano is now hitting .316 with a .447 slugging percentage, higher than Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Derek Jeter and Travis Hafner.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
Philadelphia was one of my favorites coming into the season and they have done little to dissuade my arguments thus far. The Phillies are looking very strong and Chase Utley is showing no signs of slowing down. While Philadelphia may not have the type of starting rotation of most World Series contenders, they do make up for it with a potent offense. In a previous ranking I placed the Phillies 5th despite being 17-14. I'm proud to say the team has been climbing the standings since and is now comfortably 7 games above .500 and only 1/2 game back of NL East Leaders Florida.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (4)
St. Louis entered the season as something of an underdog as they were off the radar for most analysts. However, Albert Puljos is quietly putting together a strong season and starters Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer are carrying the load, combining for a 10-3 record and looking like they can maintain their fast start for the remainder of the season. For as strong as the Cubs are playing, St. Louis is still only 2 1/2 back.

4. Boston Red Sox (8)
While the Red Sox haven't been playing their best baseball of late, the team still has the Manny Rameriez & David Ortiz duo in the middle of the lineup and a strong pitching staff. However, the team slipped in my rankings due to the injury/fatigue suffered by ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. While the Red Sox do have other talented arms, Matsuzaka is clearly the class of their rotation and was on pace to battle Cliff Lee of Cleveland for the right to start the All-Star game. If he comes back healthy, Boston will certainly get a boost, but without him they may struggle to hold off Toronto.

5. Los Angeles Angels (2)
I had no choice but to drop the Angels in the rankings this month, despite putting together another winning month in May. While the Angels are still finding a way to win, the team's offensive productivity has crawled to a halt. Vladimir Guerrero's production has been incredibly limited this season, hitting only .246 with 7 HR. Previously one of the most feared hitters in the game, Guerrero is striking out over 17% of at bats and is showing even less discipline at the plate than normal.

6. Tampa Bay Rays (NR)
Be careful not to let the word get out, but Tampa is actually putting together a solid season. While many experts are calling the Rays the best team in the American League, and certainly their record supports that, the team likely does not have the type of offensive fire power necessary to hold off the Red Sox all season. Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir is a ridiculous 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA in 6 starts. BJ Upton continues to look like an All-Star and Carl Crawford is dangerous at the plate and on the base paths. Upton and Crawford already combine for 32 steals in 41 attempts. The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics have proven in the past that timely hitting, strong defense and aggressive base running can keep a team in any game, but I think the Rays still might be a season too early for this type of breakout year.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
The Diamondbacks stumbled from the No. 1 spot in last month's rankings all the way to 7. While some are placing the Diamondbacks even lower on their respective lists, I'm not that quick to call the first month a fluke. Arizona still has dynamic pitching, and while went 6-8 over the last month, the three are far too talented to struggle over the course of a season.

Interesting Statistic: Arizona leads the Majors with 21 triples and ranks 5th in runs scored (282).

8. Chicago White Sox (NR)
In a division that should have featured the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians running away from the rest of the American League, Chicago has quietly built a 2 game lead over the Minnesota Twins. The White Sox rank second in team ERA at 3.35 on the year and surprise player Carlos Quentin is looking like an MVP contender at this point in the season. If Paul Konerko (.206 batting average) and Jim Thome (.207) can wake up and start hitting the ball the surprising White Sox will carry the division lead late into the season.

9. Florida Marlins (NR)
The Marlins, much like the Rays, are an unlikely division leader this late into the season. In the competitive AL & NL East, the Florida teams don't have the type of star power that their division rivals hold, yet they continue to put notches in the win column. Dan Uggla is putting together a career year with 129 total bases and 16 home runs already, despite 60 strikeouts.

10. Toronto Blue Jays (6)
I initially planned on having the Athletics in the No. 10 spot on these rankings, but that was before the Blue Jays out scored the A's 15-4 and took 2 of 3 in their recent series. Also with AJ Burnett lowering his ERA with each of his last 5 starts and Roy Halladay continuing his long inning wins, the Jays look like contenders in the AL East.

And without explanation, the Bottom 5. Way to go NL West.

26. San Francisco Giants
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Seattle Mariners
29. Colorado Rockies
30. San Diego Padres