Offseason Confidential: Detroit Lions

Today is the first in a series of posts titled "Offseason Confidential" with the initial focus team being the oft-discussed Detroit Lions.

After years of suffering, including a torrid 0-16 season, the Detroit Lions will enter the 2011 season as one of the most hyped teams in the NFL. While I still expect the Lions to fall comfortably in the bottom half of the NFC North, there is a lot of reason for optimism. Below is a breakdown of story lines to follow and big determinants of the team's success in making its first playoff appearance in more than a decade.

1. The Health of Matthew Stafford
While I'm a fan of the adage that "the most important player is the backup quarterback," tell that to those backing up Peyton and Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers or Brett Favre. The health of Matthew Stafford will mean more than any other factor to the Lions in the upcoming season. After enduring the substandard play of backups Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton, the Lions offense needs the consistency of a pocket passer who can complete every throw in the playbook. When healthy, Stafford appears to be exactly that. For the Lions to be a true playoff contender, Stafford will have to shed his glass chin moniker and slide a bit more often to remain a steady contributor at the quarterback position. Injuries have prevented Stafford from showing franchise quarterback potential and 2011 is a make or break season for the former No. 1 overall pick.


2. Front Four Protecting Back Seven
Typically when we talk about protection along the line, we're referring to the left tackle and guard watching the blind side of the quarterback. While that is a necessary story line to follow for the Lions as well, more importantly for this team to stay competitive will be hiding the glaring holes remaining in the defense. The Lions addressed one of their biggest strength areas, the defensive line, with their first overall selection by selecting Nick Fairley No. 12 overall. By picking a potential elite defensive tackle, the Lions now have a defensive front four that rivals teams like Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Green Bay and Chicago. However, the selection did little to help at linebacker and in the secondary. What this pick should allow, is for Detroit to put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and prevent the sketchy corners from having to cover downfield for long periods of time.

3. Continued Draft Success
While Nick Fairley was certainly a "best player available" selection, the Lions made what I would consider a few questionable picks later in the draft as well. Instead of addressing needs at offensive line, cornerback or linebacker, the team played to areas of strength. Boise State Wide Receiver Titus Young and Illinois Running Back Mikel Leshoure play impact positions that both look great in highlight reels, but may not influence games on Sunday as much as a less-flashy selection. The Lions did find a needed outside linebacker with their fifth round selection in Douglas Hogue and offensive line with Johnny Culbreath, but are project players and may not find their way to the 53-man roster. That will put added pressure on the Lions' early selections to carry the class and make large gains on offense. It's clear Detroit is making a push for a breakthrough season and by adding a couple offensive weapons with the return of Matthew Stafford, the Lions will have a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. The big drawback, is scoring 26 points per game might not be enough to win most weeks.

4. Avoid the Slow Start
In each of the last several seasons, Detroit has been out of contention before hitting its bye week. One reason the Lions have so much hype entering 2011 is due to their strong finish to the 2010 season, including four consecutive wins to finish 6-10. For the Lions to make the transition to playoff contender, they will need to have at least 4 wins, before hitting their bye in week 9. Detroit opens with Tampa, Kansas City, Minnesota, Dallas, Chicago, San Francisco, Atlanta and Denver. The second half gets tougher with two against Green Bay, the road half of the Chicago series and games against New Orleans and San Diego.

Recommended Reading: Green Bay Packers Offseason Confidential Home Page

Bulls Collapse, Heat Advance

It's only a matter of time until #epicfail starts trending on Twitter. The Bulls absolutely collapsed and gave away Game 5 tonight in Chicago. Holding a 13-point fourth quarter lead, the Bulls ended the game by allowing the Heat to rip off a 16-3 run that included clutch shots by Dewayne Wade and LeBron James. Wade completed a 4-point play while LeBron hit a three to tie the game at 79 and then another basket to put the Heat up 81-79.

While LeBron and D-Wade stepped up with clutch plays down the end, league MVP, Derrick Rose, wilted. In the last 90 seconds of the game, Rose committed a costly turn over, missed a potential game-tying free throw, and ultimately failed to create an open look for himself or a teammate on the final possession of the game, leading to him being blocked as time expired.

Credit where credit is due, Miami did everything they needed to do to win the game late, but Chicago choked tonight's game away much more than Miami won it. Entering the series I was a believer in Chicago and thought the Heat would suffer a hangover from their excessive celebration over Boston. While the Heat were hung over in Game 1, that didn't last and Chicago failed to close out another game where they had control late.

Even Russell Westbrook thinks the Bulls looked inexperienced tonight.

Phillies, Reds entertain Sportsomniacs

Despite an East coast venue, the Phillies and Reds treated us to a late night West coast finish, wrapping up at 1:19 am after taking 19-innings to settle at 5-4 Phillies. With over six hours of game time and a quality start from Roy Halladay, the Phillies relied upon 2B Wilson Valdez to come in and close out the game in the 19th.

After playing to a 3-3 tie in nine innings, the Reds and Phillies traded runs in the 10th, including a solo shot by Ryan Howard to keep the game alive. For the next several innings, relief pitchers for both sides locked down the offenses. In the top of the 19th, Philadelphia took Wilson Valdez from 2B and moved him to the mound. Ruiz became the first position player since Brett Mayne in 2000 to win a Major League game and the first since Babe Ruth in 1921 to win a game in which that player started in the field.

The game reminded me of the 22-inning marathon between the Rockis and Padres that I covered on this site in 2008. With a combined 600 pitches, 33 left on base and 16 pitchers used, the Phillies and Reds are both going to be dragging come 1:05pm today when the two meet again. Just as I did in 2008, I have to ask, would Ernie Banks make his famous "Let's play two!" call after a game like this?

Game 4 a "Must Win" for Chicago

The Bulls now find themselves in a 1-2 hole and facing game 4 on the road Tuesday. ESPN continues to trump on its overused statistic of 86% of teams winning game 3 in a 1-1 series go on to win the series. The 2004 Boston Redsox couldn't care less about statistics than the Bulls do right now. This has nothing to do with history and everything to do with the Miami Heat team that Coach Erik Spoelstra brings on to the court every night.

Despite coming out of the gates strong to start the game and reclaiming the lead late, the Chicago Bulls did not give the impression that they were going to steal their first road game of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami controlled tempo throughout the second half and any time the Bulls got something going, it was quickly answered by a contested basket by Chris Bosh or LeBron James creating space for himself or another Heat player to knock down a shot.

While James, Wade and Bosh will have quiet games and the unlikely event of at least two of the "big three" struggling could certainly lead to a Bulls win, but the unpopular truth in Chicago is that the Heat at their best is likely better than the Bulls at their best. Game 3 helped to rectify Chris Bosh's credibility and he now has two 30+ point performances in the series.

Look for Chicago to come out with a strong focus on interior defense in game 4 and attempt to keep Lebron and D-Wade out of the painted area. While it ended badly in game 3, the Bulls would still rather have Chris Bosh beat them on a night than give easy interior baskets from the Heats perimeter players.