The Lock - Week 2

Each week at Sportsomniac we will give you the locks of the week as well as the biggest betting coin flip, the underdog getting too many points, and the game with the most potential for outright upset. Last week we were 2-0 in The Lock and gave you the right suggestion to Take the Points in Chicago at Indy. We lost the coinflip of Seattle & Buffalo and called the wrong upset with San Fran & Arizona bringing our record to 3-2 versus the spread.

The Lock:
San Diego -1.5 at Denver
Despite an opening week loss to the Carolina Panthers at home, the Chargers are still the class of the AFC West and Phillip Rivers looks much more prepared at this point in his career to lead a team to the Super Bowl than Jay Cutler. Expect the Chargers to win this one by at least three with the outside chance that this one gets away from the Broncos early.

Jacksonville -5 vs Buffalo
The Jaguars fell in week 1 to Tennessee in an unexpected upset while Buffalo blew a talented Seahawks team out of the water. Despite differing week 1 performances, the Jaguars are the favorite here. Jacksonville's defensive front 7 will make it difficult for Marshawn Lynch to do much on the ground and Buffalo's defense will struggle to slow down the rushing attack of Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Expect this game to stick close to the line with the Jaguars winning 23-17.

The Coin Flip:
New Orleans PK at Washington
In the first even game of the season, New Orleans will travel to Washington to face the 0-1 Redskins. Many factors favor the 'Skins this week including home field, the absence of Marques Colston, and having extra days to prepare due to the early game against the Giants Week 1. With all these factors in play, it may be surprising that I'm taking the Saints, but the loss of Colston won't be as great as many expect and the Saints are clearly not affected by extra road games as demonstrated in years past. Take the Saints in this even money matchup.

Take the Points:
Philadelphia +7 at Dallas
The Cowboys are clearly the best team in the NFC and they're playing at home against the Eagles in week 2, but the 7 point margin is too great in this divisional showdown. Philly knows how to stop Dallas and will do just that as they nearly steal the game. Expect a late drive to be the difference in Dallas one way or another.

The Upset:
Kansas City -3 vs Oakland
I am the furthest thing from a Raiders fan and the team is clearly not a playoff contender in 2008, but that doesn't mean they can't win this week's game against the Chiefs outright. KC is suspect against the run and Oakland should be able to move the ball with relative ease. Expect Darren McFadden to get the first 100 yard rushing game of his NFL career and the Raiders to win this one going away.

The Lock - Week 1

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

Week 1 Recap

Week 1 is in the books and there were some surprises and some familiar and expected sights.

What we expected:
1. Brett Favre is still Brett Favre
While it was only Miami, Brett Favre played a very steady game on Sunday in leading the Jets to a 20-14 win over the Dolphins. At 15/22 for 194 yards and 2 TDs, Favre looked comfortable behind the formidable Jets offensive line. While he still had a couple of his typical gun slinger passes that had fans holding their breath, Favre otherwise looks ready to lead the Jets back to contention.

2. The Cowboys look like the class of the NFC
Dallas dismantled the Cleveland Browns defense to the tune of 28-10. Tony Romo had a terrific start to the season with Patrick Clayton, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten all amassing 5 or more receptions and 80+ yards. The compliment of Felix Jones to Marion Barber behind dominating offensive line gives Dallas the deadliest offense in the NFC.

What we didn't Expect
1. Michael Turner is much more than a backup RB
While we all knew Michael Turner was the most over-talented backup in the NFL behind LT, I don't think anyone expected a performance like what he had Sunday against the Detroit Lions. There are few players in NFL history to put up more yardage than Turner's 220, and only one on opening day (O.J. Simpson, 250 yards in 1973). The performance is lessened by the fact that it was against the Detroit Lions, but strengthened by the mediocre Atlanta offensive line.

2. Tom Brady would be out for the season
Fantasy Owners that burned a first round (or first overall) selection on Tom Brady really got burned when the Kansas City Chiefs put Brady on the shelf for the season. Brady's absence likely drops the Patriots from Super Bowl favorites to 'contenders' but will allow Matt Cassel to finally step out of the shadow of Brady, and previously of Matt Leinart. While this isn't VH1, Matt Cassel clearly has to be having the "Best Week Ever" as he now has the reigns of the best team in the NFL and sees Matt Leinart riding the bench in Arizona.

3. The Bears Defense to look like vintage 2006
The Indianapolis Colts are still an elite team in the NFL but the Bears made them look like the Colts of the early 90's on Sunday night as the Colts unveiled their new stadium. Peyton Manning struggled and clearly looked off his game, but the Colts could never find an answer for Brian Urlacher playing just behind the defensive line. While Urlacher was relatively quiet with his 8 tackles, he kept the pressure on Manning all night and confused the young Colts' offensive line that sorely misses Jeff Saturday at Center.

NFL Players Under Pressure

Coming into 2008 there are a lot of players facing inordinate amounts of pressure. Whether it is due to a change in scenery, expectations, or something different all together, below are the players who have the most weight on their shoulders entering the new season.

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB - Green Bay)
It's no mystery that Aaron Rodgers is feeling the heat right now. He is squared to make the first Monday Night Football appearance of the new season under center for a team that has seen the same quarterback for the past 16 seasons. And if that doesn't make things worse, Rodgers is facing division foe Minnesota, the team most commonly picked to win the division when Green Bay is not the selection (sorry Chicago & Detroit but get some offense and defense, respectively). Rodgers will have to prove he is not only ready to be a starting quarterback, but also is ready to step into the biggest empty space since Michael Jordan left the 2-guard empty in Chicago.

2. Brett Favre (QB - New York Jets)
While Rodgers is trying to live up to Brett Favre in Green Bay, Brett Favre is trying to live up to his own legacy in New York. The Jets traded for Favre with the hope and expectation that he would be the 2007 version of No. 4 and not the 2005-2006 edition that fancied multi-interception games and missed opportunities to reach the playoffs. Favre is out of the comfort and sanctuary of Lambeau and is being tossed into the New York media and a less-talented team. However, expectations are high as many experts are, prematurely, calling the Jets a playoff team. Don't be alarmed when the Jets start the season 1-2 and are looking up at New England & Buffalo.

3. Tony Romo (QB - Dallas)
Don't look now but it's another Jessica Simpson sighting. Since his weekend in Mexico and subsequent playoff departure, Romo hasn't been able to shake the label of being Jessica Simpson's boyfriend. Entering 2008 the Cowboys are the clear No. 1 team in the NFC and will likely cruise to the division championship over the defending Super Bowl Champions and talented Eagles (sorry Redskins fans who really won't be competitive this season despite some likely upsets and a deceiving 7-9 record). If the Cowboys fail to reach the Super Bowl again this year, expect either Wade Phillips or Tony Romo to be looking for a new job in 2009.

4. Eli Manning (QB - New York Giants)
The pressure in New York won't be exclusive just to the Brett Favre and the Jets. Eli Manning is the reigning Super Bowl MVP but even that won't buy him much slack in New York where he has proven to be consistently inconsistent. While the season opener against Washington looked good (and Plaxico looked GREAT), Manning will still be suspect in the eyes of fans and media alike until he leads the Giants into the playoffs again.

5. Chad Joh...err..Ocho Cinco (WR - Cincinnati)
While the quarterback is the most important, glamorous and pressure packed position in football, there is one player who has so deliberately put pressure on himself that he can't be ignored from our Top 5 list. Chad Ocho Cinco, formerly Chad Johnson, of the Cincinnati Bengals, is keeping his name in the spotlight again. While I am excited to hear some of the stodgy color commentators call him by his unique new name, No. 85 is going to look pretty foolish if he racks up 850 yards and 6 TDs. Ocho Cinco has ensured all eyes will be on him, now he just needs to put up the numbers to back up yet another one of his stunts. Luckily for him, he's already proven legal names to be less permanent than tattoos.

Other names were considered ranging from Rex Grossman to Adrian Peterson to Derek Anderson, but the five players above will be sweating extra hard on gameday.

Week 1 Fantasy Preview

In Fantasy Football we all know LT needs to be started each week and Randy Moss should never sit the bench, but what about those players who are conditional starters or warrant another look? That is where we'll focus each week in our Fantasy Preview.

Quarterback
Jon Kitna (Detroit) - While I'm not high on Kitna for 2008, I love him in week 1 against Atlanta. The falcons are coming into their first regular season game without star cornerback DeAngelo Hall and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and company are going to be open all day long. Provided the Lions offensive line can keep Kitna upright, there will be a lot of scoring opportunities.

Running Back
Laurence Maroney (New England) - Week 1 looks like the perfect start for Maroney owners. While he's a No. 2 back in most leagues, he is a must start in week 1. Against the Kansas City Chiefs the Patriots are sure to get ahead early. Tom Brady will play but likely will not be 100% and Bill Belichick will lean on his stud runner from the University of Minnesota to put up big yardage. Expect 100+ yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver
Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh) - The Steelers square off against the Houston Texans in what should be a home opening win for Roethlisberger and company. Holmes is coming into the storied third year of his career and expect him to start breaking out already in week 1 against Houston's weak secondary.

Tight End
Anthony Fasano (Miami) - It's no mystery that Chad Pennington is an accurate passer, and even less of one that he has a weak throwing arm. The primary benefactor of that will be Anthony Fasano. Expect Fasano to catch five or more passes and be a red zone option.

Defense/Special Teams
Detroit Lions - While the Lions lack overwhelming skill on the defensive side of the ball, they will be facing the Atlanta Falcons in week 1. The falcons have a huge question mark at quarterback in Matt Ryan and I'm not sold on their other offensive weapons. Week 1 could be a huge feel good game for the Lions fans and it will start with a strong defensive performance.