The Lock - Week 1

Each week at Sportsomniac we will give you the locks of the week as well as the biggest betting coin flip, the underdog getting too many points, and the game with the most potential for outright upset.

The Locks:
New York Jets -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets have two big things the Dolphins don't. The first is a talented offensive line, and the second is a hall of fame quarterback. While this game is being played in Miami, the Jets will have all the momentum as the team gets behind veteran signal caller Brett Favre and moves the ball with ease against the soft Dolphins defense.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 at Cleveland Browns
After a 10-6 season the Cleveland Browns are a trendy pick this NFL season, but the Cowboys are the real deal. Dallas looks sharp and will come out with something to prove in week one. Again expect the road team to lock this one up early.

The Coin Flip:
Buffalo -1 vs Seattle Seahawks
While no games this week are a true coin flip we'll look at the line with the fewest points, Seattle vs Buffalo where the Bills are favored by 1 point at home. Buffalo is improved coming into 2008 and were it not for the advent of the Jets, the Bills would be a likely playoff sleeper for most analysts this season. While all that may be true, Seattle is simply the better team in this matchup. Buffalo is improved, but the baseline was a 30th ranked offense that scored only 15.8 points per game in 2007 and Seattle will score 20+ with ease. Look for Seattle to steal one on the road in our first coin flip game of 2008.

Take the Points:
Indianapolis Colts -9.5 vs Chicago Bears
While few are doubting the Colts to win this game, and many are taking them in a blowout, I am less convinced this game is going to get away from the Bears. Chicago's defense has looked poor in the preseason and Kyle Orton is no Peyton Manning, but the Colts have had relatively little time together as a full starting unit and Chicago rarely lets games get out of hand. I'm calling for a Colts win but for the Bears to cover.

The Upset:
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at San Francisco 49ers
With the recent shakeup at quarterback I was surprised to see the line fall where it did for this game. Both sides have new quarterbacks and while the 49ers don't have the same weapons in the passing game, they do have Frank Gore who has dominated the Cardinals over his short career. San Francisco won both meetings in 2007 and I expect them to pull the upset and get the outright win against Arizona

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.