The Lock - Week 3

We struggled a bit in week 2 with the lock and our overall record fell to 5-5 against the spread. We missed on the Broncos/Chargers game (but it's okay, so did the officials) along with the Bills and Redskins. We did give you the right game to take the points with Philly and picked the upset of Oakland over KC. However, in week 3 there are a few key matchups that look particularly appealing to the betting mind at the Sportsomniac.

The Lock:
Dallas -3 at Green Bay
I love the Packers this year and have them as my NFC North champion (provided they hold off the Bears) but they're no match for Dallas in this one. Were this game played later in the season among the elements at Lambeau it might be a different story. Green Bay does match up very well with Dallas, perhaps better than any team short of Philadelphia, but the Packers are just slightly over matched.

Chicago -3 vs Tampa Bay
Many people were down on the Bears entering the season but I've been cautiously optimistic. The monsters of the midway have returned and the Bears are finally healthy. While the offense isn't setting any records, it has steadily moved the ball and Matt Forte gives the team a legitimate running back (adios Cedric Benson). Tampa Bay is now led by Brian Griese despite the proven track record of Jeff Garcia. This game likely won't be pretty, but the Bears will cover and improve to 2-1, taking a share of the division lead.

The Coin Flip:
Cleveland +2 at Baltimore
While I'm down on the Browns this year they have enough to win this week at Baltimore in what is the closest betting line of the week. Baltimore's offense looked rough in week 1 and despite the extra week to prepare for Cleveland, the Ravens will not be very fluid on offense. Willis McGahee has been hurting and Flacco is far from an NFL star at this point. Take the points and take the Browns in an outright upset.

Take the Points:
Cincinnati +13.5 at New York Giants
The Bengals are worse than even I expected and their offense has not produced in the first two weeks. While there's no sign of that changing, and the defense is looking soft, 13.5 is too many points to give to the Giants. Eli and company are off to a good start despite the loss of some key starters on defense, but they are not the type of team that will blow out opponents, especially in the first half. Take the Giants to win but Cincy to keep it interesting early.

The Upset:
Pittsburgh +3 at Philadelphia
While I like Philly as the third best team in the NFC (Dallas, Green Bay leading the way), they are no match for the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense is up to the challenge of containing McNabb and the offense has enough weapons to lay points on the Eagles defense. Take the points and the Steelers for the upset win.

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.