Friday, September 26, 2008

The Lock - Week 4

With our record at only 8-7 on the season against the spread, The Sportsomniac is looking at Week 4 with high hopes due to some soft lines on the books this week.

The Lock:
San Diego -7.5 at Oakland
Luckily for fans of the Silver & Black the Raiders are improved in 2008, but the Chargers have finally found their stride and will have no trouble dismantling the Raiders on their home turf. Expect another showing like the MNF performance this past week against the Jets and a lopsided Chargers victory.

Atlanta +7 at Carolina
The Falcons have overachieved to a 2-1 record and I expect them to do the same in Week 4. While I don't feel comfortable picking them as The Upset, I do see them as a lock to keep it within the spread. Watch for Michael Turner to be the difference maker again for the Falcons.

The Coinflip:
Tampa Bay -1 vs Green Bay
In the closest line of the week, Tampa is favored by only 1 point against Green Bay. While I still see Green Bay as the second best team in the NFC, they will fall in week 4. Tampa is looking strong behind Brian Griese and their defense is playing tough. Were this game played at Lambeau in January the prediction (and the line) would look totally different, but right now Tampa is playing stronger football. Expect a close game won by the Bucs at home.

Take the Points:
Washington +11 at Dallas
Dallas is the elite team in the NFC this year and already has wins over two of the best conference opponents in Green Bay and Philadelphia, but much like Philly, the Redskins will play a tight game this weekend in Big D. The Cowboys should still come away with the win, but Washington will keep this one close.

The Upset:
Cleveland +3.5 at Cincinnati
Cincinnati finally woke up from its early season slumber last week against the Giants and Cleveland continues to struggle. That said, the Bengals aren't ready for their first win of the year and the Browns need it. Look for Cleveland to take the outright upset in this matchup and walk away with a 1-3 record, officially starting the "fire Marvin Lewis" talk in Cincinnati.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Week 3 Recap

In week 3 we'll look at four underperforming stars of the NFL and determine if they can break out from their early season slumps.

Randy Moss (WR, New England) - Moss is still one of the best receivers in the game, but without Tom Brady he is looking mortal compared to super hero status in 2007. Randy Moss can only improve if one of two things happen: Matt Cassel improves, or the Patriots find a new QB to throw to the veteran wide out. With things in their current state, Moss won't achieve 1000 yards or 10 touchdowns this season but if the Pats make a move his stock could return to near pre-injury levels. Do you think Dante Culpepper wants that job in New England? Too bad the hoodie probably doesn't want him...

Peyton Manning (QB, Indianapolis) - Peyton Manning is also off to a rough start, also due to injuries. Manning's obstacles stem from his own offseason injury that kept him out of the preseason, damaging the precious timing that has made the Colts passing game so flawless in recent years. The other glaring issue facing Manning is the loss of Jeff Saturday to an MCL injury. Upon Saturday's return to 100% you can expect Manning and the Colts to turn the corner. Also, a week 4 BYE is perfect as Indy has a lot of fine tuning to do. Expect Manning to come back with a strong second half of the season, but not quite the MVP form he typically displays.

Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco (WR, Cincinnati) - It's hard to believe we haven't heard much out of Chad Johnson so far this season. With only 8 receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns, No. 85 is off to his slowest start yet. Typically a slow starter, Johnson has also been battling a shoulder injury suffered in the preseason. Cincinnati finally moved the ball last week and looked like an NFL franchise again playing against the Giants, but Johnson still didn't contribute. Expect this to be a down season for Johnson, especially due to a lack of successful play action passing that made the Rudi Johnson/Chad Johnson combination so deadly.

Larry Johnson (RB, Kansas City) - LJ was the predominate No. 1 or No. 2 pick in fantasy circles a couple years ago but has now slipped to the role of No. 2 or No. 3 running back. Very little of Johnson's slip has to do with his individual performance or effort, but instead the loss of a quality offensive line. KC was once famous for its great line, but now it looks better suited to play powder puff with high schoolers than on Sundays and the lack of a true quarterback threat will make for a long season for Johnson. I'll be surprised if Johnson crosses 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2008.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

The Lock - Week 3

We struggled a bit in week 2 with the lock and our overall record fell to 5-5 against the spread. We missed on the Broncos/Chargers game (but it's okay, so did the officials) along with the Bills and Redskins. We did give you the right game to take the points with Philly and picked the upset of Oakland over KC. However, in week 3 there are a few key matchups that look particularly appealing to the betting mind at the Sportsomniac.

The Lock:
Dallas -3 at Green Bay
I love the Packers this year and have them as my NFC North champion (provided they hold off the Bears) but they're no match for Dallas in this one. Were this game played later in the season among the elements at Lambeau it might be a different story. Green Bay does match up very well with Dallas, perhaps better than any team short of Philadelphia, but the Packers are just slightly over matched.

Chicago -3 vs Tampa Bay
Many people were down on the Bears entering the season but I've been cautiously optimistic. The monsters of the midway have returned and the Bears are finally healthy. While the offense isn't setting any records, it has steadily moved the ball and Matt Forte gives the team a legitimate running back (adios Cedric Benson). Tampa Bay is now led by Brian Griese despite the proven track record of Jeff Garcia. This game likely won't be pretty, but the Bears will cover and improve to 2-1, taking a share of the division lead.

The Coin Flip:
Cleveland +2 at Baltimore
While I'm down on the Browns this year they have enough to win this week at Baltimore in what is the closest betting line of the week. Baltimore's offense looked rough in week 1 and despite the extra week to prepare for Cleveland, the Ravens will not be very fluid on offense. Willis McGahee has been hurting and Flacco is far from an NFL star at this point. Take the points and take the Browns in an outright upset.

Take the Points:
Cincinnati +13.5 at New York Giants
The Bengals are worse than even I expected and their offense has not produced in the first two weeks. While there's no sign of that changing, and the defense is looking soft, 13.5 is too many points to give to the Giants. Eli and company are off to a good start despite the loss of some key starters on defense, but they are not the type of team that will blow out opponents, especially in the first half. Take the Giants to win but Cincy to keep it interesting early.

The Upset:
Pittsburgh +3 at Philadelphia
While I like Philly as the third best team in the NFC (Dallas, Green Bay leading the way), they are no match for the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense is up to the challenge of containing McNabb and the offense has enough weapons to lay points on the Eagles defense. Take the points and the Steelers for the upset win.

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Week 2 Recap

In our first weekly recap I talked about some expected and unexpected happenings in the first week. In week 2 I'll break down which 0-2 teams have a chance to still make the playoffs and which winless teams are teetering on the edge of breakdown.

0-2 With a Chance:
San Diego Chargers - It's tough to imagine one of the five most talented teams in the NFL missing the playoffs, particularly in the weak AFC West. The Broncos are better than expected, particularly on offense, but the Chargers still have 4 games between Oakland & KC which will almost certainly be a sweep. Expect the Chargers to finish at 11-5 and skate into the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars - I said at season start that the Jags, Colts, Texans and Titans would combine to make the toughest division in the NFL, and I'm sticking to that. The Jaguars still have a chance but with Indy on the schedule this week they could drop to 0-3 and be on the outside looking in. Jacksonville is banged up itself but will need to take care of Indianapolis this week as they'll be without Bob Sanders and Jeff Saturday.

Seattle Seahawks - The NFC West is an interesting division. It doesn't get a lot of play, and rightfully so, as it is the worst in the NFL. That said, Seattle is already 2 games back of Arizona that has a revitalized Kurt Warner at the helm. Expect to see the first part of a turn around as Seattle hosts St. Louis this week in a game that should be a huge confidence booster. I'm still picking Seattle to win the division with a 10-6 record despite the slow start.

0-2 And Likely Done:
Cleveland Browns - Many people came into the season high on the Browns. I did not, however, as the breakout season from Derek Anderson is difficult to replicate and Jamal Lewis is still on the wrong side of his peek. Cleveland will be chasing Pittsburgh all season and a week 3 loss to Baltimore would put an early nail in the coffin for the Browns, especially if the Steelers clean up Philly.

Minnesota Vikings - It's hard to say a team with this defense is done already, but Green Bay looks really strong and I could easily see 3 playoff teams out of the NFC East again (sorry Washington, this doesn't include you). Minnesota plays the Panthers this week and a loss will put them to 0-3. Tavaris Jackson, enjoy the season because it will likely be your last in Purple.

Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins. These are five of the worst teams in the NFL and their records reflect that fact. Fans of these teams need not worry, I'll start putting together draft projections before the season is done.

Week 1 Recap

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Week 2 Fantasy Preview

In Fantasy Football we all know LT needs to be started each week and Randy Moss should never sit the bench, but what about those players who are conditional starters or warrant another look? That is where we'll focus each week in our Fantasy Preview.

Quarterback:
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) - In week 1 Roethlisberger had a quiet game while Willie Parker went crazy, but look for more impressive numbers in week 2 against rival Cleveland. The Browns demonstrated a lack of defense in their opening week loss to Dallas, a game in which Tony Romo put up 320 yards. Expect Roethlisberger to finish with 300+ yards and a couple TDs, making him my start of the week!

Running Back:
Ryan Grant (Green Bay) - Two words: Michael Turner. Turner exposed the Lions rush defense in week 1 with 220 yards and we can expect Grant to follow suit. While it's unlikely Grant will put up such staggering numbers, it's clear that the Packers will lean on him to move the offense and Detroit showed they can't tackle anyone. Expect 120+ yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver:
David Patten (New Orleans) - In the spirit of finding players fantasy owners might not expect to be big contributors in week 2, I give you David Patten. Patten is now a starting wide receiver for New Orleans until Marques Colston returns from injury in 4-6 weeks. While Washington isn't an ideal matchup, it rarely matters for Drew Brees who has quietly become an elite QB. Expect 5-6 receptions with touchdown potential. Patten is a free agent in about 50% of leagues for owners who lack WR depth.

Tight End:
Heath Miller (Pittsburgh) - Not trying to sound like a broken record, but I really like Pittsburgh this week against Cleveland. The Browns don't really have anyone that matches up well with Miller meaning he'll have a lot of open looks and owners can expect Roethlisberger to connect early and often.

Defense/Special Teams:
New York Giants - St. Louis put up 3 points in their opener and while they are historically stronger at home than on the road, they will struggle again. The Giants lost a lot of play makers but the Rams still don't have an offensive line to speak of and the Giants front 4 will be in the backfield most of the game.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Lock - Week 2

Each week at Sportsomniac we will give you the locks of the week as well as the biggest betting coin flip, the underdog getting too many points, and the game with the most potential for outright upset. Last week we were 2-0 in The Lock and gave you the right suggestion to Take the Points in Chicago at Indy. We lost the coinflip of Seattle & Buffalo and called the wrong upset with San Fran & Arizona bringing our record to 3-2 versus the spread.

The Lock:
San Diego -1.5 at Denver
Despite an opening week loss to the Carolina Panthers at home, the Chargers are still the class of the AFC West and Phillip Rivers looks much more prepared at this point in his career to lead a team to the Super Bowl than Jay Cutler. Expect the Chargers to win this one by at least three with the outside chance that this one gets away from the Broncos early.

Jacksonville -5 vs Buffalo
The Jaguars fell in week 1 to Tennessee in an unexpected upset while Buffalo blew a talented Seahawks team out of the water. Despite differing week 1 performances, the Jaguars are the favorite here. Jacksonville's defensive front 7 will make it difficult for Marshawn Lynch to do much on the ground and Buffalo's defense will struggle to slow down the rushing attack of Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Expect this game to stick close to the line with the Jaguars winning 23-17.

The Coin Flip:
New Orleans PK at Washington
In the first even game of the season, New Orleans will travel to Washington to face the 0-1 Redskins. Many factors favor the 'Skins this week including home field, the absence of Marques Colston, and having extra days to prepare due to the early game against the Giants Week 1. With all these factors in play, it may be surprising that I'm taking the Saints, but the loss of Colston won't be as great as many expect and the Saints are clearly not affected by extra road games as demonstrated in years past. Take the Saints in this even money matchup.

Take the Points:
Philadelphia +7 at Dallas
The Cowboys are clearly the best team in the NFC and they're playing at home against the Eagles in week 2, but the 7 point margin is too great in this divisional showdown. Philly knows how to stop Dallas and will do just that as they nearly steal the game. Expect a late drive to be the difference in Dallas one way or another.

The Upset:
Kansas City -3 vs Oakland
I am the furthest thing from a Raiders fan and the team is clearly not a playoff contender in 2008, but that doesn't mean they can't win this week's game against the Chiefs outright. KC is suspect against the run and Oakland should be able to move the ball with relative ease. Expect Darren McFadden to get the first 100 yard rushing game of his NFL career and the Raiders to win this one going away.

The Lock - Week 1

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Week 1 Recap

Week 1 is in the books and there were some surprises and some familiar and expected sights.

What we expected:
1. Brett Favre is still Brett Favre
While it was only Miami, Brett Favre played a very steady game on Sunday in leading the Jets to a 20-14 win over the Dolphins. At 15/22 for 194 yards and 2 TDs, Favre looked comfortable behind the formidable Jets offensive line. While he still had a couple of his typical gun slinger passes that had fans holding their breath, Favre otherwise looks ready to lead the Jets back to contention.

2. The Cowboys look like the class of the NFC
Dallas dismantled the Cleveland Browns defense to the tune of 28-10. Tony Romo had a terrific start to the season with Patrick Clayton, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten all amassing 5 or more receptions and 80+ yards. The compliment of Felix Jones to Marion Barber behind dominating offensive line gives Dallas the deadliest offense in the NFC.

What we didn't Expect
1. Michael Turner is much more than a backup RB
While we all knew Michael Turner was the most over-talented backup in the NFL behind LT, I don't think anyone expected a performance like what he had Sunday against the Detroit Lions. There are few players in NFL history to put up more yardage than Turner's 220, and only one on opening day (O.J. Simpson, 250 yards in 1973). The performance is lessened by the fact that it was against the Detroit Lions, but strengthened by the mediocre Atlanta offensive line.

2. Tom Brady would be out for the season
Fantasy Owners that burned a first round (or first overall) selection on Tom Brady really got burned when the Kansas City Chiefs put Brady on the shelf for the season. Brady's absence likely drops the Patriots from Super Bowl favorites to 'contenders' but will allow Matt Cassel to finally step out of the shadow of Brady, and previously of Matt Leinart. While this isn't VH1, Matt Cassel clearly has to be having the "Best Week Ever" as he now has the reigns of the best team in the NFL and sees Matt Leinart riding the bench in Arizona.

3. The Bears Defense to look like vintage 2006
The Indianapolis Colts are still an elite team in the NFL but the Bears made them look like the Colts of the early 90's on Sunday night as the Colts unveiled their new stadium. Peyton Manning struggled and clearly looked off his game, but the Colts could never find an answer for Brian Urlacher playing just behind the defensive line. While Urlacher was relatively quiet with his 8 tackles, he kept the pressure on Manning all night and confused the young Colts' offensive line that sorely misses Jeff Saturday at Center.

Friday, September 5, 2008

NFL Players Under Pressure

Coming into 2008 there are a lot of players facing inordinate amounts of pressure. Whether it is due to a change in scenery, expectations, or something different all together, below are the players who have the most weight on their shoulders entering the new season.

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB - Green Bay)
It's no mystery that Aaron Rodgers is feeling the heat right now. He is squared to make the first Monday Night Football appearance of the new season under center for a team that has seen the same quarterback for the past 16 seasons. And if that doesn't make things worse, Rodgers is facing division foe Minnesota, the team most commonly picked to win the division when Green Bay is not the selection (sorry Chicago & Detroit but get some offense and defense, respectively). Rodgers will have to prove he is not only ready to be a starting quarterback, but also is ready to step into the biggest empty space since Michael Jordan left the 2-guard empty in Chicago.

2. Brett Favre (QB - New York Jets)
While Rodgers is trying to live up to Brett Favre in Green Bay, Brett Favre is trying to live up to his own legacy in New York. The Jets traded for Favre with the hope and expectation that he would be the 2007 version of No. 4 and not the 2005-2006 edition that fancied multi-interception games and missed opportunities to reach the playoffs. Favre is out of the comfort and sanctuary of Lambeau and is being tossed into the New York media and a less-talented team. However, expectations are high as many experts are, prematurely, calling the Jets a playoff team. Don't be alarmed when the Jets start the season 1-2 and are looking up at New England & Buffalo.

3. Tony Romo (QB - Dallas)
Don't look now but it's another Jessica Simpson sighting. Since his weekend in Mexico and subsequent playoff departure, Romo hasn't been able to shake the label of being Jessica Simpson's boyfriend. Entering 2008 the Cowboys are the clear No. 1 team in the NFC and will likely cruise to the division championship over the defending Super Bowl Champions and talented Eagles (sorry Redskins fans who really won't be competitive this season despite some likely upsets and a deceiving 7-9 record). If the Cowboys fail to reach the Super Bowl again this year, expect either Wade Phillips or Tony Romo to be looking for a new job in 2009.

4. Eli Manning (QB - New York Giants)
The pressure in New York won't be exclusive just to the Brett Favre and the Jets. Eli Manning is the reigning Super Bowl MVP but even that won't buy him much slack in New York where he has proven to be consistently inconsistent. While the season opener against Washington looked good (and Plaxico looked GREAT), Manning will still be suspect in the eyes of fans and media alike until he leads the Giants into the playoffs again.

5. Chad Joh...err..Ocho Cinco (WR - Cincinnati)
While the quarterback is the most important, glamorous and pressure packed position in football, there is one player who has so deliberately put pressure on himself that he can't be ignored from our Top 5 list. Chad Ocho Cinco, formerly Chad Johnson, of the Cincinnati Bengals, is keeping his name in the spotlight again. While I am excited to hear some of the stodgy color commentators call him by his unique new name, No. 85 is going to look pretty foolish if he racks up 850 yards and 6 TDs. Ocho Cinco has ensured all eyes will be on him, now he just needs to put up the numbers to back up yet another one of his stunts. Luckily for him, he's already proven legal names to be less permanent than tattoos.

Other names were considered ranging from Rex Grossman to Adrian Peterson to Derek Anderson, but the five players above will be sweating extra hard on gameday.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Week 1 Fantasy Preview

In Fantasy Football we all know LT needs to be started each week and Randy Moss should never sit the bench, but what about those players who are conditional starters or warrant another look? That is where we'll focus each week in our Fantasy Preview.

Quarterback
Jon Kitna (Detroit) - While I'm not high on Kitna for 2008, I love him in week 1 against Atlanta. The falcons are coming into their first regular season game without star cornerback DeAngelo Hall and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and company are going to be open all day long. Provided the Lions offensive line can keep Kitna upright, there will be a lot of scoring opportunities.

Running Back
Laurence Maroney (New England) - Week 1 looks like the perfect start for Maroney owners. While he's a No. 2 back in most leagues, he is a must start in week 1. Against the Kansas City Chiefs the Patriots are sure to get ahead early. Tom Brady will play but likely will not be 100% and Bill Belichick will lean on his stud runner from the University of Minnesota to put up big yardage. Expect 100+ yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver
Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh) - The Steelers square off against the Houston Texans in what should be a home opening win for Roethlisberger and company. Holmes is coming into the storied third year of his career and expect him to start breaking out already in week 1 against Houston's weak secondary.

Tight End
Anthony Fasano (Miami) - It's no mystery that Chad Pennington is an accurate passer, and even less of one that he has a weak throwing arm. The primary benefactor of that will be Anthony Fasano. Expect Fasano to catch five or more passes and be a red zone option.

Defense/Special Teams
Detroit Lions - While the Lions lack overwhelming skill on the defensive side of the ball, they will be facing the Atlanta Falcons in week 1. The falcons have a huge question mark at quarterback in Matt Ryan and I'm not sold on their other offensive weapons. Week 1 could be a huge feel good game for the Lions fans and it will start with a strong defensive performance.

The Lock - Week 1

Each week at Sportsomniac we will give you the locks of the week as well as the biggest betting coin flip, the underdog getting too many points, and the game with the most potential for outright upset.

The Locks:
New York Jets -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets have two big things the Dolphins don't. The first is a talented offensive line, and the second is a hall of fame quarterback. While this game is being played in Miami, the Jets will have all the momentum as the team gets behind veteran signal caller Brett Favre and moves the ball with ease against the soft Dolphins defense.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 at Cleveland Browns
After a 10-6 season the Cleveland Browns are a trendy pick this NFL season, but the Cowboys are the real deal. Dallas looks sharp and will come out with something to prove in week one. Again expect the road team to lock this one up early.

The Coin Flip:
Buffalo -1 vs Seattle Seahawks
While no games this week are a true coin flip we'll look at the line with the fewest points, Seattle vs Buffalo where the Bills are favored by 1 point at home. Buffalo is improved coming into 2008 and were it not for the advent of the Jets, the Bills would be a likely playoff sleeper for most analysts this season. While all that may be true, Seattle is simply the better team in this matchup. Buffalo is improved, but the baseline was a 30th ranked offense that scored only 15.8 points per game in 2007 and Seattle will score 20+ with ease. Look for Seattle to steal one on the road in our first coin flip game of 2008.

Take the Points:
Indianapolis Colts -9.5 vs Chicago Bears
While few are doubting the Colts to win this game, and many are taking them in a blowout, I am less convinced this game is going to get away from the Bears. Chicago's defense has looked poor in the preseason and Kyle Orton is no Peyton Manning, but the Colts have had relatively little time together as a full starting unit and Chicago rarely lets games get out of hand. I'm calling for a Colts win but for the Bears to cover.

The Upset:
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at San Francisco 49ers
With the recent shakeup at quarterback I was surprised to see the line fall where it did for this game. Both sides have new quarterbacks and while the 49ers don't have the same weapons in the passing game, they do have Frank Gore who has dominated the Cardinals over his short career. San Francisco won both meetings in 2007 and I expect them to pull the upset and get the outright win against Arizona

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

NFL Power Rankings

Tonight kicks off the new NFL season and with it comes the first installment of the NFL Power Rankings.

The Top Ten
1. New England Patriots - While the team suffered a historic collapse in the Super Bowl that had Giants fans and the 1975 Dolphins all popping champagne, they're still the most ready to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

2. Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys look great on paper with a dynamic offense and a strong defensive secondary. Expect the 'boys to dominate the NFC and win the second toughest division in football.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning & Marvin Harrison are both healthy and Joseph Addai doesn't get the credit he deserves (much like Edge was underrated in his time in Indianapolis). While the team has some questions on the offensive line, Peyton runs the best play action in football and the Colts will again be successful, to the tune of 12-4.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars - When I said the NFC East was the second toughest division in football it is behind the AFC South. David Garrard was sensational a year ago and the addition of Jerry Porter should give him a reasonable target to throw to. Jones-Drew & Fred Taylor are the type of one-two punch rivaled by few teams in the league. Jacksonville's defense is scary enough that even if Garrard doesn't put up numbers like last season, the team is still a lock for the playoffs.

5. San Diego Chargers - While many are calling the Chargers the best team in football, I'm not entirely sold due to Phillip Rivers not looking like an elite quarterback and Shawne Merriman's injury. San Diego does have the benefit of playing the Broncos, Raiders & Chiefs twice which should mean a 5-1 or better divisional record.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers - Roethlisberger and company look sharp this season and the addition of Rashard Mendenhall gives the team a Bettis-like goal line running back. Expect the Steelers to be the true class of the AFC North, and not the Cleveland Browns.

7. Seattle Seahawks - It's a big drop from the class of the NFC (Dallas) to the next level, but Seattle leads the rest of the pack. With one of the best defenses in football and an epic 12th-man in the stands, Seattle will be ready for a division title in the NFC West.

8. New Orleans Saints - While a lot of people see Tampa Bay as the division winner, New Orleans is the class of the division. Drew Brees has the second best offense in the NFC at his disposal and the defense is strong enough to make stops when needed.

9. Green Bay Packers - While Minnesota is the favorite to win the North in many rankings, Green Bay still has a great defense and talented receivers. Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like Brett Favre, but he's looked like the best QB in the division already (Sorry Kitna fans, the guy is going to throw 20+ INTs again this year and Jackson & Orton aren't even in the discussion).

10. Philadelphia Eagles - While many will be surprised that the Eagles, and not the Giants, are the second best team in the division, a simple look at the rosters will tell the story. The Giants were great last season out of getting production from unlikely sources, but the well is starting to run dry and the Eagles are ready to return to the playoffs.

Bottom Five
28. Detroit Lions - Despite a perfect preseason, the Lions still don't have what it takes to win eight games, even in the NFC North. Questions on both sides of the ball abound and Rudi Johnson is far from the savior the team needs.

29. Miami Dolphins - While I like the Jake Long draft pick and addition of Chad Pennington, the Dolphins are still the worst team in a very difficult division.

30. St. Louis Rams - I'm done believing in the Rams the same way Lions fans are tired of being let down. St. Louis is going to struggle on the offensive line and the defense is questionable at best.

31. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have a lot of young talent and a few valuable veterans, but the team that once had the best offensive line and rushing attack in football will not be in that same ballpark. Expect the Chiefs to battle Oakland for the bottom spot in the AFC West.

32. Atlanta Falcons - While I like the future potential of Matt Ryan, he is in a spot right now where he can't be successful. The line is tough at the defense is spotty. Hopefully Ryan doesn't suffer a David Carr type of rookie season.