Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Hey Michael, Need a Cell Mate?




Michael Vick might have a new cell mate soon as Plaxico Burress faces class C felony charges for carrying a concealed weapon. To add insult to injury, Burress will face a minimum sentence of 3 1/2 years for shooting himself in the thigh at a New York City night club.

For the New York Giants it's just another case of Plaxico showing a lack of good judgement. Burress has shown a history of failing to report to meetings and practices, but nothing to this extent. The recipient of the game winning touchdown in the Super Bowl over the Patriots last February, Burress is now Public Enemy No. 1 of Mayor Bloomberg who is calling for Burress to be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

Even Ray Lewis and Michael Vick think Plaxico Burress is foolish for getting mixed up with a bad crowd and making poor decisions.
Will we see Burress behind bars soon? We'll have to wait until March 31 to find out, but he certainly won't be playing for the Giants again this season and likely won't ever again. Just like Michael Vick, Burress will almost certainly end up with jail time, and will go from fan favorite to the butt of jokes. Have fun in prison Plaxico, or should I say, Harris Smith.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

NFL Power Rankings

As the playoff picture starts to shape up it is time to revisit our NFL Power Rankings. We are now without an undefeated team, but still with a winless team. Below, your third edition of the NFL Power Rankings.

1. New York Giants (10-1) - The Giants have proven with remarkable consistency that they are not suffering a Super Bowl hangover and look like the clear favorites to represent the NFC again.

2. New York Jets (8-3) - With five straight wins, including a dominating win over the previously unbeaten Titans, the Jets are giving life to the pretence of an all New York Super Bowl. Will Brett Favre continue to be a difference maker or will we see a gun slinger with no care for interceptions emerge again? So far, so good for Jets fans.

3. Tennessee Titans (10-1) - The Titans are still one of the best teams in the NFL and now play without the 16-0 pressure. We'll see how angry the Titans are when they face the Lions on Thanksgiving. How is the line only 11 points for this game?

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) - Despite the injuries, the Steelers keep cruising as they try to hold off the Ravens.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) - The grizzly vets in the Bay know how to win and are doing just that.

6. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) - After a 3-4 start and talks of missing the playoffs, the Colts are now primed for a run to a wild card spot and look like the team we all expected.

7. Carolina Panthers (8-3) - Despite a loss to the Falcons, the Panthers are still one of the most balanced teams in the NFL and are bidding to keep the last to first streak alive in the NFC South.

8. New England Patriots (7-4) - Matt Cassel was a liability for the first half of the season, but now is looking Brady-esc with back to back 400 yard games. If Cassel continues his high level of play the Patriots will be a team to look out for in December and January.

9. Dallas Cowboys (7-4) - As Wade Phillips tries to hold on to his job, his defensive mastery is showing through and the Cowboys are playing like a motivated team once again.

10. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) - The Ravens keep finding ways to win and their offense has looked very strong at times, complimenting their typically great defense.

11. Atlanta Falcons (7-4) - Matt Ryan does not play like a rookie quarterback and the Falcons don't play like a team I and many others thought would be fortunate to win 4 games this season.

12. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) - I love the Cardinals offense but the defense worries me and the inability to win on the road will make a playoff run difficult. Kudos to Kurt Warner for continuing to put up outstanding numbers.

13. Washington Redskins (7-4) - Jim Zorn has done a great job with the Redskins this season, and while they're barely outscoring their opponents on the season (201-199) they continue to find ways to win.

14. Chicago Bears (6-5) - The Bears are the likely front runners in the NFC North and a big showdown with Minnesota this weekend will go a long way to determine the eventual division champion.

15. New Orleans Saints (6-5) - Don't forget about these Saints. They have the potential to be a major spoiler and get themselves into the playoffs.

16. Denver Broncos (6-5) - While they aren't the dominant team they appeared to be at the start of the season, the Broncos are almost a lock to win the AFC West and could pose a challenge in the playoffs, especially at home.

17. Minnesota Vikings (6-5) - An impressive win over Jacksonville and the chance to take first place outright could put the Vikings on a road to the playoffs.

18. Philadelphia Eagles (5-5-1) - Luckily for McNabb, most fans have moved on from the tie debacle and now he can focus on finding a way to get the Eagles into the playoffs. With Washington, Dallas and a handful of other teams in his way, it won't be easy.

19. Miami Dolphins (6-5) - It's clear the wildcat offense won't take them to a division title, but at least Tony Sparano has this team competitive again.

20. Buffalo Bills (6-5) - The Bills have fallen from their early season form but still have a chance to win 9 games this season.

21. San Diego Chargers (4-7) - If they don't win out, Norv Turner will likely not be back as head coach of the Chargers for 2009. Their goes the favorite to win the Super Bowl according to our preseason poll.

22. Green Bay Packers (5-6) - Aaron Rodgers continues to play well, but the Packers defense is suspect and their inability to get pressure on the quarterback will keep them from winning the North.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) - Another team with high expectations and low productivity, the Jags will be lucky to win 8 games.

24. Cleveland Browns (4-7) - With Brady Quinn out for the season Derek Anderson will get the chance to audition for a starting gig for next season, whether in Cleveland or elsewhere.

25. Houston Texans (4-7) - The Texans are showing signs of improvement each season, but still look miles away from a division championship contender.

26. San Francisco 49ers (3-8) - If teams continue to find ways to stop Frank Gore then the 49ers will struggle even more as the season winds down.

27. Seattle Seahawks (2-9) - Joining the Jags and Chargers, the Seahawks failed to live up to the expectations of almost everyone this season.

28. Oakland Raiders (3-8) - Still a team that is at least one year away from being competitive.

29. St. Louis Rams (2-9) - The excitement of a couple upset wins have worn off and the Rams are back to being one of the worst teams in the NFL. They would be wise to shut down Steven Jackson for the remainder of the season.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) - It's good this team got a win early in the season....

31. Cincinnati Bengals (1-10) - Why does Marvin Lewis still have his job?

32. Detroit Lions (0-11) - It's been a long time since such a bad team had so many people following their progression, or lack their of.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Can Jacksonville make it two in a row?

Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars disappointed fans all over the country when they were upset by the Cincinnati Bengals, one of only two winless teams in the NFL. Now in week 10, the Jags face the final winless team, the Detroit Lions.

The Lions will enter the game with Daunte Culpepper under center, fresh out of retirement. It's more likely that Culpepper will draw up plays on the palm of his hand in the huddle than anything, hopefully calling the famous "run 10 steps then hook left" type of play calling. It might not be the worst thing, though, as the Lions have had no continuity on offense for an entire game this season and if all else fails, Culpepper might see visions of Randy Moss to his left and chuck deep bombs to Calvin Johnson all game.

The Jaguars are getting 6 points in this game, but their rushing defense has disappeared in recent weeks and their famed defense looks soft. Watch out Jacksonville, this may be Detroit's last chance to win a game this season, making them surprisingly dangerous.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Titans Officially Emerge

As one of the last people to come around to the thought of the Tennessee Titans as an elite team, I have to admit that they looked great against the Colts on Monday Night Football. At 14-6 I was certain my +4 bet on the Colts was the wisest choice of the week in The Lock, but instead I suffered my first losing week (2-3) in over a month and the Titans proved how tough they really are. Down 8 points to the traditionally dominant team in the division, the Titans rallied and scored 25 unanswered and closed the door on the AFC South. The season is only half over, but the Titans have a 4-game lead on the rest of the division and holds the tie breaker.

The Giants, Steelers and Redskins all look good, and the Sunday afternoon game between Pittsburgh and New York looked like a potential Super Bowl preview, but the fact remains that the Titans are holding a perfect record and played like the best team in football tonight. Peyton Manning was relatively sharp compared to some early season efforts, but the complete inability to run the football allowed Tennessee to control the game. Their speed in the secondary and strength up front proved a dangerous combination as the defense stepped up to stop the Colts on two critical fourth down situations in the second half.

The next set of the Power Rankings will be coming soon and the Titans will hold the No. 1 ranking. Their rank will not be by default, but rather as a reflection of their dominating defense and strong rushing attack. Kerry Collins showed he is not simply a 'manager of the game' as suggested constantly by the MNF commentators, but systematically led the Titans downfield in the fourth quarter with a pass heavy attack to kill the Colts chances of a comeback.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

0-16 Looming Large for Lions, Bengals

While I often make fun of Lions' fans for looking ahead at the NFL draft only a few weeks into the regular season, there at least will be one distraction keeping them busy in 2008. The Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals have realistic chances of going 0-16 this year, and fulfilling one of my dreams of seeing a team run the table in reverse.

Again this week Detroit looked good in spurts. I had to watch the game as a Michigan resident as only the Lions-Redskins and Jets-Chiefs were options. But, through some unseen force, perhaps the power of Matt Millen willing the team to even lower standards after his departure, the Lions found a way to lose. The commentators even stated, "It's like the Lions are waiting for something bad to happen." That statement describes the entire Rod Marinelli era in Detroit and certainly explains the 2008 season thus far.

For the Bengals week 8 was another non-competitive showing. Aside from a close loss to the Giants, Cincinnati has been just as pathetic as Detroit this year. Cincinnati has scored 104 points this season, while giving up 217. Detroit, 114 vs. 212. Looking ahead at their two schedules, Detroit truly has the opportunity to go 0-16, while Cincinnati holds an outside chance as well.

Detroit's remaining schedule includes Chicago, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Green Bay. Only two of those teams (Jacksonville and Minnesota) have losing records.

Cincinnati is half way to its quest of a winless season and has games against Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City. Sadly, Kansas City could be a spoiler at the end of the season and Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent enough to make them vulnerable to upset as well.

Could both of these teams finish 0-16? Only time will tell, but their combined 0-15 record to this point demonstrates the pathetic nature of both these franchises and further confuse fans as to how these coaches are still employed. Look out second half of the NFL season; while many teams will be fighting for the playoffs, these two teams will battle it out for the first overall draft pick and a season for the record books.

As if the 4th quarter effort on Sunday wasn't enough to tell you that the Lions players have given up, the trade of Roy Williams to Dallas and placement of Jon Kitna on IR signals the end of an era.

ESPN Coaches Approval Ratings

ESPN offers one of my favorite polls every year and this one runs during the NFL season. Approval ratings for head coaches. The highest rated head coach? Jim Zorn at 94%.

Also rating over 90% approval rating: John Fox, Jeff Fisher, Tony Sparano, John Harbaugh, and Tom Coughlin.

Bringing up the rear was Marvin Lewis of Cincinnati at 13%. Under 20% are also Herm Edwards, Brad Childress, Rod Marinelli and Norv Turner.

Looking at the results, and the 15% approval rating for Norv Turner, makes me wonder how long he'll be employed. After several failed stints as a head coach, Turner miraculously landed the job in San Diego where he was given one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.

Coaches who will likely be polishing their resumes this offseason: Marinelli, Edwards, Turner, Lewis, and Wade Phillips (43%).

Complete Ratings

Friday, October 24, 2008

The Lock - Week 8

It was another profitable week here at Sportsomniac. While my 401k may be dissolving, my betting book is getting fat after a 4-1 week and a 20-12 overall record against the spread. There are few more things than getting a huge amount of points and watching your 'dog get the outright win. Look below for even more picks sure to cash in as Vegas is giving the favorites a lot of points in week 8.

The Lock:
Houston -9.5 vs Cincinnati
The Marvin Lewis era needs to end and a blow out loss to Houston will help to further convince Bengals' fans of that fact. While Houston is far from an elite team, even they have enough talent to dominate the hapless Bengals.

Cleveland +7 at Jacksonville
Anyone who knows me, knows I love the Jaguars' defense and focus on the run. That said, Cleveland's defense has been impressive the last two weeks holding the Giants and Redskins to 14 points each. Jacksonville should get the win, but it will be close and it will be late.

The Coinflip:
Buffalo -1.5 at Miami
In a classic trap game, Buffalo travels to Miami to take on the Dolphins. While this game features two teams on the opposite spectrum of the divisional standings, Buffalo isn't the clear favorite they probably should be. Expect the Bills to win going away to the tune of 29-17.

Take the Points:
Atlanta +9 at Philadelphia
As I said at the top, Vegas is giving a lot of favorites too many points, and this is just one more example. Atlanta recently showcased two impressive wins against Green Bay and Chicago and will be well rested coming off their bye as they travel to Philadelphia. While I like the Eagles who will view this as a must win game, they don't have enough to bury the Falcons like the line would have you believe. Expect a close game and consider the Falcons for the outright upset.

The Upset:
Indianapolis +4 at Tennessee
Despite the temptation to take the Rams looking to upset another top team in the Patriots, I have to go with Indianapolis here. While Tennessee enjoys the league's best record and the top spot on our recent Power Rankings, the Colts will show their experience here as they'll win on the road on Monday Night Football.

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Mood: Missing Tom Brady

To answer the questions in advance that the title may bring to mind I am not an emo blogger who starts each post with an emotion, I don't have a man-crush, and I do not have Tom Brady on my fantasy football team.

Most years in the NFL we have an idea of the elite teams by the quarter mark of the season, or certainly by the half way point. In the upside down world of the 2008 NFL season I'm still waiting for the Titans and Bills to be exposed and any other franchise to step up and take the season by the reigns.

The Colts dominated the Ravens in week six, only to crumple to the Packers on Sunday. Dallas was clearly the best team in the NFL a few weeks in, and now has back to losses and Brad Johnson at the helm. The Broncos and Saints were offensive juggernauts and now are looking sluggish with defenses that ride the short bus to games.

So with no team really stepping up to look truly dominant, I can't help but miss the evil empire to cheer against. I'm not from New York, but that doesn't mean I can't hate the Patriots as much as everyone else. Without the villain or the dominant team to cheer against, the league is a little duller in 2008.

There are still great matchups each week and my Bears keep every game interesting, even to the final play, but the season of true parity is making me miss some predictable blowouts. The Rams shouldn't be beating the Cowboys and Redskins. The Bills' one loss shouldn't be to the Cardinals. The Lions shouldn't...nevermind, I don't know where I was going with that thought.

What I'm really getting at, is that while I love the 'any given Sunday' mentality of the NFL, I do miss the one team that you love to cheer against and can get mad at when they smoke your hometown favorite by three touchdowns. At least for Lions & Bengals fans they'll have plenty of beat downs to suffer and a host of losses to experience, regardless of the mediocrity of the rest of the NFL.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

NFL Power Rankings

While others may say they have them, at the Sportsomniac we are proud to offer the true NFL Power Rankings; a 1-32 listing of each NFL team. Through six weeks of the season, we are now getting a sense of which teams are for real, and which are not there yet. I must say that in all my years following the NFL, I cannot recall a time where the league seemed so soft at the top where there is no dominant team.

1. Tennessee Titans (5-0) - This is a team I never thought would have the top ranking before the season started, but no franchise has matched the Titans' offensive and defensive intensity. After KC this week, the Titans will face a grueling stretch with matcups against Indianapolis, Green Bay, Chicago, Jacksonville and the Jets.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) - While this team has been struggling with injuries all season, Willie Parker is due back this weekend and the team is still 4-1. Despite a strong showing from the Browns on MNF, the Steelers are the best team in the AFC North.

3. Indianapolis Colts (3-2) - This likely isn't a popular pick among anyone, like myself, who watched the Colts' first four games. However, despite some awful performances from the offensive line and struggles to run the football, the Colts are 3-2 and Peyton Manning finally looks 100%.

4. New York Giants (4-2) - The Giants were run out of Cleveland on Monday night but a big win against San Francisco at home this week and they'll be poised to face the Steelers in week 8 in a potential Super Bowl preview.

5. Washington Redskins (4-2) - A week 6 loss to the Rams doesn't bode well for the 'Skins, but Washington has proven they can beat anyone (at least those teams with a win already, 0-2 against winless teams - although I don't know if the 0-0 Giants really count).

6. San Diego Chargers (3-3) - An impressive win over New England got the Chargers to 3-3 and with some better breaks they'd be leading the AFC West right now.

7. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (4-2) - With perhaps the fewest star players among the top teams in the league, the Bucs keep finding ways to win and the defense continues to impress, remaining one of two teams having given up less than 100 points through six games (Carolina is the other).

8. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) - For all the talk on ESPN about Dallas falling apart and looking like they're going to miss the playoffs, this team still has a ton of talent. Having Tony Romo go down will be a blessing in disguise as America's Team will realize how effective Marion Barber can be when rushed 25 times per game.

9. Denver Broncos (4-2) - Many experts will rank the Broncos higher than I do at 9, however a team with so little defense almost always seems to struggle in the playoffs and down the stretch and I expect the Broncos to do exactly that.

10. Carolina Panthers (4-2) - The Panthers had a chance to vault into the top five with a win over Tampa this past week, but a 27-3 drumming barely kept them in the top ten. With key matchups against New Orleans and Arizona the next two weeks, the Panthers will make or break their season in the next two weeks if both games have the same outcome.

11. Chicago Bears (3-3) - I give the Bears the second spot among 3-3 teams due to their nearly 5-1 record. Chicago needs to figure out how to hold onto games or they won't make the playoffs, but they've played like the 2006 Bears at times as well.

12. New York Jets (3-2) - While they've been inconsistent, the Jets are doing a lot of things right. The next four opponents are Oakland, KC, Buffalo and St. Louis. The Jets could be 7-2 by week 10 and running away from the Patriots.

13. Buffalo Bills (4-1) - Only one loss and outside the top ten. Maybe it's true that Buffalo doesn't get enough respect, but I'm still not convinced they're the class of the AFC East.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) - The Jags enter the bye at a great time and will face a soft schedule the next few weeks. With Cleveland, Cincy and Detroit coming up before a pivotal division showdown with Tennessee, now is the time for Jacksonville to make up ground in the AFC.

15. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) - While we're all still on injury watch for Kurt Warner, the Cardinals are quietly two games up in the NFC West and the offense looks great, even without Anquan Boldin.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) - The Eagles seem like an afterthought in the NFC East but are capable of beating anyone and are one of the most balanced teams in the NFC. Nothing from 8-8 to 11-5 would surprise me, but this division is tough.

17. Green Bay Packers (3-3) - The Packers started out as one of the best teams in the NFL but Aaron Rodgers and company have slipped of late. However, a great win on the road against Seattle will give this team a boost.

18. New Orleans Saints (3-3) - Drew Brees looks like an MVP candidate if he can get the Saints over the hump. Matchups with Carolina and San Diego before the bye will tell us how good the Saints are at the half way point of their season.

19. Atlanta Falcons (4-2) - While the Falcons continue to win I am still not a believer. You would think after doubting the Rays all season I would have learned my lesson, but Atlanta just doesn't have all the tools on defense necessary to win down the stretch. Expect the Falcons to fade with a brutal schedule coming up that includes Philadelphia, New Orleans, Denver and San Diego, Carolina. Only Oakland looks like a sure-fire win over the next several weeks.

20. Cleveland Browns (2-3) - A great win against the Giants goes a long way toward giving the Browns hope for the rest of the season.

21. New England Patriots (3-2) - It's tough to think of the Patriots as the 21st team in the NFL, but Matt Cassel has proven he can't hit open receivers beyond 20 yards down field, something the Patriots desperately need with a weapon like Randy Moss.

22. Minnesota Vikings (3-3) - While it may be painful to watch, the Vikings do seem to find a way to win games.

23. Baltimore Ravens (2-3) - The defense always looks good but without Willis McGahee eating up yards on the ground Joe Flacco can only do so much as a rookie QB.

24. Miami Dolphins (2-3) - There is one great thing about the Dolphins, and that is almost any high school football player could pick up their offense in a weekend if Ronnie Brown goes down. Did Urban Meyer take control of play calling for the Dolphins with nobody noticing?

25. Houston Texans (1-4) - A near-win against the Colts is as close as the Texans have come to relevancy this season. Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton and the defensive line look great, but the rest of the Texans need to catch up.

26. San Francisco 49ers (2-4) - The 49ers have done some good things this season but other than Frank Gore the team has not been consistent. The offense has found success, but the defense has more holes than a whack-a-mole game at the arcade.

27. Seattle Seahawks (1-4) - For a team that I picked to win the division and one with a ton of talent on defense, the Seahawks have looked awful. I still believe the Seahawks can win the NFC West, but their performance each week makes me question my own sanity.

28. Oakland Raiders (1-4) - The Raiders have been able to play well in spurts but are clearly a year away from any type of success. And if head coaches keep flying out of the organization like they have, we might never see JaMarcus Russell's potential reached.

29. St. Louis Rams (1-4) - The win against the Redskins was impressive but there still isn't much hope in St. Louis. With Dallas, New England and Arizona all on the schedule the next three weeks, a 2-6 record would be a success after week 9.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) - The Chiefs haven't been able to get anything going all season with a combined 65-131 score against opponents this season.

31. Cincinnati Bengals (0-6) - Marvin Lewis can't seem to right the ship and this train is off the tracks. They just need to take one game at a time and play like a team. I figured some tired cliches were in order for a team with uninspired stars at the skill positions. What the hell, how about a John Madden quote to boot, "The team with the most points usually wins, and that hasn't been these guys so far this year."

32. Detroit Lions (0-5) - It's no mystery that this team is in disarray and an 0-5 start only tells part of the story in Motown. Three wins would be a successful finish for this awful franchise. How many more years will we have to watch the Lions on Thanksgiving?

For comparison, the ESPN Power Rankings, released a few hours after ours here at The Sportsomniac.

The Lock - Week 6

The Sportsomniac is back again with some picks to pad your pockets. The stock market may be crumbling but we're still raking cash here behind some strong picks.

The Lock:
New York Jets -9.5 vs Cincinnati
While the Bengals aren't quite as bad as the other winless teams in the NFL, but they are still inept enough to be run off the field by Brett Favre and company. Expect a big win for the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!

Chicago -3 at Atlanta
The Bears demonstrated last week that their offense is starting to come together and Kyle Orton looks competent enough to move the football. The Bears will make the Falcons look like one of the worst teams in the NFL like we all expected at season start.

The Coinflip:
Green Bay +1.5 at Seattle
Quest Field is possibly the toughest place to win on the road, but Green Bay has the ability to win this one on the road. There is still no continuity with Matt Hasselbeck and his receivers and a week's practice won't be enough to get Branch and Engram up to speed. Green Bay will keep it close, but will pull out the win.

Take the Points:
St. Louis +13.5 at Washington
I've done a 180 on the Redskins and picking against them versus the spread doesn't deter that, I simply don't see them as proficient enough to cover two touchdowns in this game. St. Louis will fall, but they'll lose to the tune of 23-12 or closer.

The Upset:
Miami +3 at Houston
I couldn't tell last week if Houston's rush defense just looked that good, or if the Colts offensive line is just that bad. That said, Miami is feeling very confident right now and as much as the Texans are looking forward to their schedule this month, the Dolphins are even more excited to move above .500 on the season.

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Upcoming Content

The NFL season is in full swing and we're still struggling to make sense of what to think with the current NFL standings. Indy is 1-2 and Buffalo is 4-0. The Falcons have as many wins as the Seahawks and Browns - combined! With all that in mind, below is a quick preview of what is to come for the duration of the NFL season here at The Sportsomniac.

NFL Power Rankings
Stay tuned as after week 5 The Sportsomniac will give you our first mid-season NFL rankings. Based off our Preseason Power Rankings we will have some updates to make. Look for a full 1-32 style ranking with writeups for each position in the rankings. The rest of the way, the NFL rankings will become bi-weekly.

Playoff Outlook
Each week I'll outline which teams are facing a must-win game or how the playoff picture is shaping up. Each edition will be future-focused in order to give fans a real sense of what is to come for their favorite franchises.

The Lock
For the gamblers in the house The Lock will continue with its weekly predictions. To date we're sitting at 12-8 and Week 5 picks are below.

Weekly Recap
Despite taking a week off following week 4, the weekly recaps will resume as scheduled. Look for recaps to include anything from critical game breakdowns to deep dives into player performances, injury updates or anything else a die hard NFL fan could want.

Stay tuned for what will be an exciting NFL season both on the field and here in the digital world at The Sportsomniac.

The Lock - Week 5

In week 4 bettors again profited behind a 4-1 record with correct picks of Washington over Dallas, Tampa over Green Bay, San Diego -7.5 over Oakland and Cleveland over Cincy. We missed only on Atlanta vs Carolina. In week 5 there are some enticing matchups again and fresh off a trip to Vegas, I can tell you the sports books can expect some good betting on a few of these picks.

The Lock:
Indianapolis -3 at Houston
The Colts have struggled to find a rhythm but have shown fourth quarter promise against Minnesota and Jacksonville in consecutive weeks and a bye last week should have helped solidify the inconsistent offense. Look for the type of Colts offense we all expect this week in what will likely be a high scoring game won by the Colts going away.

Denver -3 vs Tampa Bay
As proven by my betting record in Tampa games, I really like the Buccaneers this season but this is a match up their secondary can't handle. Denver is looking too strong right now and while I think the Tampa offense will have some success against the Bronco defense, I don't see them keeping pace with Jay Cutler and company.

The Coinflip:
Buffalo -1.5 at Arizona
With the tightest line of the week Buffalo travels to University of Phoenix Stadium to play the Cardinals that are in the midst of an early season losing streak. For the Cardinals this is an important game to win but Buffalo is simply too focused right now to drop its first of the season here.

Take the Points:
Washington +6 at Philadelphia
For those who have been following The Lock since the start of the season it's been pretty obvious my feelings have changed on Washington, and I'm buying as much into Jim Zorn as Jason Campbell and the Redskins players. Playing at Philly in Week 5 is going to be difficult but the team is coming off a big win against Dallas and the offense is starting to click. Campbell looks comfortable in the pocket and Portis is finding running room. Even if Philly wins this game, it will fall within the 6 point spread. Take Washington and the six.

The Upset:
Detroit +3.5 vs Chicago
As an enormous Bears fan it pains me to pick Detroit as the upset of the week. The Lions have looked horrible all season but this is exactly the type of game Bears fans expect to slip up. With both starting corners out of the game Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson should find a lot of open room in the secondary and a few big strikes will be all it takes for the Lions to get ahead. Unless the Bears can put a lot of pressure on Jon Kitna early and often this will be a week 5 upset for the Chicago Bears.

Friday, September 26, 2008

The Lock - Week 4

With our record at only 8-7 on the season against the spread, The Sportsomniac is looking at Week 4 with high hopes due to some soft lines on the books this week.

The Lock:
San Diego -7.5 at Oakland
Luckily for fans of the Silver & Black the Raiders are improved in 2008, but the Chargers have finally found their stride and will have no trouble dismantling the Raiders on their home turf. Expect another showing like the MNF performance this past week against the Jets and a lopsided Chargers victory.

Atlanta +7 at Carolina
The Falcons have overachieved to a 2-1 record and I expect them to do the same in Week 4. While I don't feel comfortable picking them as The Upset, I do see them as a lock to keep it within the spread. Watch for Michael Turner to be the difference maker again for the Falcons.

The Coinflip:
Tampa Bay -1 vs Green Bay
In the closest line of the week, Tampa is favored by only 1 point against Green Bay. While I still see Green Bay as the second best team in the NFC, they will fall in week 4. Tampa is looking strong behind Brian Griese and their defense is playing tough. Were this game played at Lambeau in January the prediction (and the line) would look totally different, but right now Tampa is playing stronger football. Expect a close game won by the Bucs at home.

Take the Points:
Washington +11 at Dallas
Dallas is the elite team in the NFC this year and already has wins over two of the best conference opponents in Green Bay and Philadelphia, but much like Philly, the Redskins will play a tight game this weekend in Big D. The Cowboys should still come away with the win, but Washington will keep this one close.

The Upset:
Cleveland +3.5 at Cincinnati
Cincinnati finally woke up from its early season slumber last week against the Giants and Cleveland continues to struggle. That said, the Bengals aren't ready for their first win of the year and the Browns need it. Look for Cleveland to take the outright upset in this matchup and walk away with a 1-3 record, officially starting the "fire Marvin Lewis" talk in Cincinnati.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Week 3 Recap

In week 3 we'll look at four underperforming stars of the NFL and determine if they can break out from their early season slumps.

Randy Moss (WR, New England) - Moss is still one of the best receivers in the game, but without Tom Brady he is looking mortal compared to super hero status in 2007. Randy Moss can only improve if one of two things happen: Matt Cassel improves, or the Patriots find a new QB to throw to the veteran wide out. With things in their current state, Moss won't achieve 1000 yards or 10 touchdowns this season but if the Pats make a move his stock could return to near pre-injury levels. Do you think Dante Culpepper wants that job in New England? Too bad the hoodie probably doesn't want him...

Peyton Manning (QB, Indianapolis) - Peyton Manning is also off to a rough start, also due to injuries. Manning's obstacles stem from his own offseason injury that kept him out of the preseason, damaging the precious timing that has made the Colts passing game so flawless in recent years. The other glaring issue facing Manning is the loss of Jeff Saturday to an MCL injury. Upon Saturday's return to 100% you can expect Manning and the Colts to turn the corner. Also, a week 4 BYE is perfect as Indy has a lot of fine tuning to do. Expect Manning to come back with a strong second half of the season, but not quite the MVP form he typically displays.

Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco (WR, Cincinnati) - It's hard to believe we haven't heard much out of Chad Johnson so far this season. With only 8 receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns, No. 85 is off to his slowest start yet. Typically a slow starter, Johnson has also been battling a shoulder injury suffered in the preseason. Cincinnati finally moved the ball last week and looked like an NFL franchise again playing against the Giants, but Johnson still didn't contribute. Expect this to be a down season for Johnson, especially due to a lack of successful play action passing that made the Rudi Johnson/Chad Johnson combination so deadly.

Larry Johnson (RB, Kansas City) - LJ was the predominate No. 1 or No. 2 pick in fantasy circles a couple years ago but has now slipped to the role of No. 2 or No. 3 running back. Very little of Johnson's slip has to do with his individual performance or effort, but instead the loss of a quality offensive line. KC was once famous for its great line, but now it looks better suited to play powder puff with high schoolers than on Sundays and the lack of a true quarterback threat will make for a long season for Johnson. I'll be surprised if Johnson crosses 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2008.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

The Lock - Week 3

We struggled a bit in week 2 with the lock and our overall record fell to 5-5 against the spread. We missed on the Broncos/Chargers game (but it's okay, so did the officials) along with the Bills and Redskins. We did give you the right game to take the points with Philly and picked the upset of Oakland over KC. However, in week 3 there are a few key matchups that look particularly appealing to the betting mind at the Sportsomniac.

The Lock:
Dallas -3 at Green Bay
I love the Packers this year and have them as my NFC North champion (provided they hold off the Bears) but they're no match for Dallas in this one. Were this game played later in the season among the elements at Lambeau it might be a different story. Green Bay does match up very well with Dallas, perhaps better than any team short of Philadelphia, but the Packers are just slightly over matched.

Chicago -3 vs Tampa Bay
Many people were down on the Bears entering the season but I've been cautiously optimistic. The monsters of the midway have returned and the Bears are finally healthy. While the offense isn't setting any records, it has steadily moved the ball and Matt Forte gives the team a legitimate running back (adios Cedric Benson). Tampa Bay is now led by Brian Griese despite the proven track record of Jeff Garcia. This game likely won't be pretty, but the Bears will cover and improve to 2-1, taking a share of the division lead.

The Coin Flip:
Cleveland +2 at Baltimore
While I'm down on the Browns this year they have enough to win this week at Baltimore in what is the closest betting line of the week. Baltimore's offense looked rough in week 1 and despite the extra week to prepare for Cleveland, the Ravens will not be very fluid on offense. Willis McGahee has been hurting and Flacco is far from an NFL star at this point. Take the points and take the Browns in an outright upset.

Take the Points:
Cincinnati +13.5 at New York Giants
The Bengals are worse than even I expected and their offense has not produced in the first two weeks. While there's no sign of that changing, and the defense is looking soft, 13.5 is too many points to give to the Giants. Eli and company are off to a good start despite the loss of some key starters on defense, but they are not the type of team that will blow out opponents, especially in the first half. Take the Giants to win but Cincy to keep it interesting early.

The Upset:
Pittsburgh +3 at Philadelphia
While I like Philly as the third best team in the NFC (Dallas, Green Bay leading the way), they are no match for the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense is up to the challenge of containing McNabb and the offense has enough weapons to lay points on the Eagles defense. Take the points and the Steelers for the upset win.

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Week 2 Recap

In our first weekly recap I talked about some expected and unexpected happenings in the first week. In week 2 I'll break down which 0-2 teams have a chance to still make the playoffs and which winless teams are teetering on the edge of breakdown.

0-2 With a Chance:
San Diego Chargers - It's tough to imagine one of the five most talented teams in the NFL missing the playoffs, particularly in the weak AFC West. The Broncos are better than expected, particularly on offense, but the Chargers still have 4 games between Oakland & KC which will almost certainly be a sweep. Expect the Chargers to finish at 11-5 and skate into the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars - I said at season start that the Jags, Colts, Texans and Titans would combine to make the toughest division in the NFL, and I'm sticking to that. The Jaguars still have a chance but with Indy on the schedule this week they could drop to 0-3 and be on the outside looking in. Jacksonville is banged up itself but will need to take care of Indianapolis this week as they'll be without Bob Sanders and Jeff Saturday.

Seattle Seahawks - The NFC West is an interesting division. It doesn't get a lot of play, and rightfully so, as it is the worst in the NFL. That said, Seattle is already 2 games back of Arizona that has a revitalized Kurt Warner at the helm. Expect to see the first part of a turn around as Seattle hosts St. Louis this week in a game that should be a huge confidence booster. I'm still picking Seattle to win the division with a 10-6 record despite the slow start.

0-2 And Likely Done:
Cleveland Browns - Many people came into the season high on the Browns. I did not, however, as the breakout season from Derek Anderson is difficult to replicate and Jamal Lewis is still on the wrong side of his peek. Cleveland will be chasing Pittsburgh all season and a week 3 loss to Baltimore would put an early nail in the coffin for the Browns, especially if the Steelers clean up Philly.

Minnesota Vikings - It's hard to say a team with this defense is done already, but Green Bay looks really strong and I could easily see 3 playoff teams out of the NFC East again (sorry Washington, this doesn't include you). Minnesota plays the Panthers this week and a loss will put them to 0-3. Tavaris Jackson, enjoy the season because it will likely be your last in Purple.

Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins. These are five of the worst teams in the NFL and their records reflect that fact. Fans of these teams need not worry, I'll start putting together draft projections before the season is done.

Week 1 Recap

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Week 2 Fantasy Preview

In Fantasy Football we all know LT needs to be started each week and Randy Moss should never sit the bench, but what about those players who are conditional starters or warrant another look? That is where we'll focus each week in our Fantasy Preview.

Quarterback:
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) - In week 1 Roethlisberger had a quiet game while Willie Parker went crazy, but look for more impressive numbers in week 2 against rival Cleveland. The Browns demonstrated a lack of defense in their opening week loss to Dallas, a game in which Tony Romo put up 320 yards. Expect Roethlisberger to finish with 300+ yards and a couple TDs, making him my start of the week!

Running Back:
Ryan Grant (Green Bay) - Two words: Michael Turner. Turner exposed the Lions rush defense in week 1 with 220 yards and we can expect Grant to follow suit. While it's unlikely Grant will put up such staggering numbers, it's clear that the Packers will lean on him to move the offense and Detroit showed they can't tackle anyone. Expect 120+ yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver:
David Patten (New Orleans) - In the spirit of finding players fantasy owners might not expect to be big contributors in week 2, I give you David Patten. Patten is now a starting wide receiver for New Orleans until Marques Colston returns from injury in 4-6 weeks. While Washington isn't an ideal matchup, it rarely matters for Drew Brees who has quietly become an elite QB. Expect 5-6 receptions with touchdown potential. Patten is a free agent in about 50% of leagues for owners who lack WR depth.

Tight End:
Heath Miller (Pittsburgh) - Not trying to sound like a broken record, but I really like Pittsburgh this week against Cleveland. The Browns don't really have anyone that matches up well with Miller meaning he'll have a lot of open looks and owners can expect Roethlisberger to connect early and often.

Defense/Special Teams:
New York Giants - St. Louis put up 3 points in their opener and while they are historically stronger at home than on the road, they will struggle again. The Giants lost a lot of play makers but the Rams still don't have an offensive line to speak of and the Giants front 4 will be in the backfield most of the game.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Lock - Week 2

Each week at Sportsomniac we will give you the locks of the week as well as the biggest betting coin flip, the underdog getting too many points, and the game with the most potential for outright upset. Last week we were 2-0 in The Lock and gave you the right suggestion to Take the Points in Chicago at Indy. We lost the coinflip of Seattle & Buffalo and called the wrong upset with San Fran & Arizona bringing our record to 3-2 versus the spread.

The Lock:
San Diego -1.5 at Denver
Despite an opening week loss to the Carolina Panthers at home, the Chargers are still the class of the AFC West and Phillip Rivers looks much more prepared at this point in his career to lead a team to the Super Bowl than Jay Cutler. Expect the Chargers to win this one by at least three with the outside chance that this one gets away from the Broncos early.

Jacksonville -5 vs Buffalo
The Jaguars fell in week 1 to Tennessee in an unexpected upset while Buffalo blew a talented Seahawks team out of the water. Despite differing week 1 performances, the Jaguars are the favorite here. Jacksonville's defensive front 7 will make it difficult for Marshawn Lynch to do much on the ground and Buffalo's defense will struggle to slow down the rushing attack of Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Expect this game to stick close to the line with the Jaguars winning 23-17.

The Coin Flip:
New Orleans PK at Washington
In the first even game of the season, New Orleans will travel to Washington to face the 0-1 Redskins. Many factors favor the 'Skins this week including home field, the absence of Marques Colston, and having extra days to prepare due to the early game against the Giants Week 1. With all these factors in play, it may be surprising that I'm taking the Saints, but the loss of Colston won't be as great as many expect and the Saints are clearly not affected by extra road games as demonstrated in years past. Take the Saints in this even money matchup.

Take the Points:
Philadelphia +7 at Dallas
The Cowboys are clearly the best team in the NFC and they're playing at home against the Eagles in week 2, but the 7 point margin is too great in this divisional showdown. Philly knows how to stop Dallas and will do just that as they nearly steal the game. Expect a late drive to be the difference in Dallas one way or another.

The Upset:
Kansas City -3 vs Oakland
I am the furthest thing from a Raiders fan and the team is clearly not a playoff contender in 2008, but that doesn't mean they can't win this week's game against the Chiefs outright. KC is suspect against the run and Oakland should be able to move the ball with relative ease. Expect Darren McFadden to get the first 100 yard rushing game of his NFL career and the Raiders to win this one going away.

The Lock - Week 1

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Week 1 Recap

Week 1 is in the books and there were some surprises and some familiar and expected sights.

What we expected:
1. Brett Favre is still Brett Favre
While it was only Miami, Brett Favre played a very steady game on Sunday in leading the Jets to a 20-14 win over the Dolphins. At 15/22 for 194 yards and 2 TDs, Favre looked comfortable behind the formidable Jets offensive line. While he still had a couple of his typical gun slinger passes that had fans holding their breath, Favre otherwise looks ready to lead the Jets back to contention.

2. The Cowboys look like the class of the NFC
Dallas dismantled the Cleveland Browns defense to the tune of 28-10. Tony Romo had a terrific start to the season with Patrick Clayton, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten all amassing 5 or more receptions and 80+ yards. The compliment of Felix Jones to Marion Barber behind dominating offensive line gives Dallas the deadliest offense in the NFC.

What we didn't Expect
1. Michael Turner is much more than a backup RB
While we all knew Michael Turner was the most over-talented backup in the NFL behind LT, I don't think anyone expected a performance like what he had Sunday against the Detroit Lions. There are few players in NFL history to put up more yardage than Turner's 220, and only one on opening day (O.J. Simpson, 250 yards in 1973). The performance is lessened by the fact that it was against the Detroit Lions, but strengthened by the mediocre Atlanta offensive line.

2. Tom Brady would be out for the season
Fantasy Owners that burned a first round (or first overall) selection on Tom Brady really got burned when the Kansas City Chiefs put Brady on the shelf for the season. Brady's absence likely drops the Patriots from Super Bowl favorites to 'contenders' but will allow Matt Cassel to finally step out of the shadow of Brady, and previously of Matt Leinart. While this isn't VH1, Matt Cassel clearly has to be having the "Best Week Ever" as he now has the reigns of the best team in the NFL and sees Matt Leinart riding the bench in Arizona.

3. The Bears Defense to look like vintage 2006
The Indianapolis Colts are still an elite team in the NFL but the Bears made them look like the Colts of the early 90's on Sunday night as the Colts unveiled their new stadium. Peyton Manning struggled and clearly looked off his game, but the Colts could never find an answer for Brian Urlacher playing just behind the defensive line. While Urlacher was relatively quiet with his 8 tackles, he kept the pressure on Manning all night and confused the young Colts' offensive line that sorely misses Jeff Saturday at Center.

Friday, September 5, 2008

NFL Players Under Pressure

Coming into 2008 there are a lot of players facing inordinate amounts of pressure. Whether it is due to a change in scenery, expectations, or something different all together, below are the players who have the most weight on their shoulders entering the new season.

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB - Green Bay)
It's no mystery that Aaron Rodgers is feeling the heat right now. He is squared to make the first Monday Night Football appearance of the new season under center for a team that has seen the same quarterback for the past 16 seasons. And if that doesn't make things worse, Rodgers is facing division foe Minnesota, the team most commonly picked to win the division when Green Bay is not the selection (sorry Chicago & Detroit but get some offense and defense, respectively). Rodgers will have to prove he is not only ready to be a starting quarterback, but also is ready to step into the biggest empty space since Michael Jordan left the 2-guard empty in Chicago.

2. Brett Favre (QB - New York Jets)
While Rodgers is trying to live up to Brett Favre in Green Bay, Brett Favre is trying to live up to his own legacy in New York. The Jets traded for Favre with the hope and expectation that he would be the 2007 version of No. 4 and not the 2005-2006 edition that fancied multi-interception games and missed opportunities to reach the playoffs. Favre is out of the comfort and sanctuary of Lambeau and is being tossed into the New York media and a less-talented team. However, expectations are high as many experts are, prematurely, calling the Jets a playoff team. Don't be alarmed when the Jets start the season 1-2 and are looking up at New England & Buffalo.

3. Tony Romo (QB - Dallas)
Don't look now but it's another Jessica Simpson sighting. Since his weekend in Mexico and subsequent playoff departure, Romo hasn't been able to shake the label of being Jessica Simpson's boyfriend. Entering 2008 the Cowboys are the clear No. 1 team in the NFC and will likely cruise to the division championship over the defending Super Bowl Champions and talented Eagles (sorry Redskins fans who really won't be competitive this season despite some likely upsets and a deceiving 7-9 record). If the Cowboys fail to reach the Super Bowl again this year, expect either Wade Phillips or Tony Romo to be looking for a new job in 2009.

4. Eli Manning (QB - New York Giants)
The pressure in New York won't be exclusive just to the Brett Favre and the Jets. Eli Manning is the reigning Super Bowl MVP but even that won't buy him much slack in New York where he has proven to be consistently inconsistent. While the season opener against Washington looked good (and Plaxico looked GREAT), Manning will still be suspect in the eyes of fans and media alike until he leads the Giants into the playoffs again.

5. Chad Joh...err..Ocho Cinco (WR - Cincinnati)
While the quarterback is the most important, glamorous and pressure packed position in football, there is one player who has so deliberately put pressure on himself that he can't be ignored from our Top 5 list. Chad Ocho Cinco, formerly Chad Johnson, of the Cincinnati Bengals, is keeping his name in the spotlight again. While I am excited to hear some of the stodgy color commentators call him by his unique new name, No. 85 is going to look pretty foolish if he racks up 850 yards and 6 TDs. Ocho Cinco has ensured all eyes will be on him, now he just needs to put up the numbers to back up yet another one of his stunts. Luckily for him, he's already proven legal names to be less permanent than tattoos.

Other names were considered ranging from Rex Grossman to Adrian Peterson to Derek Anderson, but the five players above will be sweating extra hard on gameday.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Week 1 Fantasy Preview

In Fantasy Football we all know LT needs to be started each week and Randy Moss should never sit the bench, but what about those players who are conditional starters or warrant another look? That is where we'll focus each week in our Fantasy Preview.

Quarterback
Jon Kitna (Detroit) - While I'm not high on Kitna for 2008, I love him in week 1 against Atlanta. The falcons are coming into their first regular season game without star cornerback DeAngelo Hall and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and company are going to be open all day long. Provided the Lions offensive line can keep Kitna upright, there will be a lot of scoring opportunities.

Running Back
Laurence Maroney (New England) - Week 1 looks like the perfect start for Maroney owners. While he's a No. 2 back in most leagues, he is a must start in week 1. Against the Kansas City Chiefs the Patriots are sure to get ahead early. Tom Brady will play but likely will not be 100% and Bill Belichick will lean on his stud runner from the University of Minnesota to put up big yardage. Expect 100+ yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver
Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh) - The Steelers square off against the Houston Texans in what should be a home opening win for Roethlisberger and company. Holmes is coming into the storied third year of his career and expect him to start breaking out already in week 1 against Houston's weak secondary.

Tight End
Anthony Fasano (Miami) - It's no mystery that Chad Pennington is an accurate passer, and even less of one that he has a weak throwing arm. The primary benefactor of that will be Anthony Fasano. Expect Fasano to catch five or more passes and be a red zone option.

Defense/Special Teams
Detroit Lions - While the Lions lack overwhelming skill on the defensive side of the ball, they will be facing the Atlanta Falcons in week 1. The falcons have a huge question mark at quarterback in Matt Ryan and I'm not sold on their other offensive weapons. Week 1 could be a huge feel good game for the Lions fans and it will start with a strong defensive performance.

The Lock - Week 1

Each week at Sportsomniac we will give you the locks of the week as well as the biggest betting coin flip, the underdog getting too many points, and the game with the most potential for outright upset.

The Locks:
New York Jets -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets have two big things the Dolphins don't. The first is a talented offensive line, and the second is a hall of fame quarterback. While this game is being played in Miami, the Jets will have all the momentum as the team gets behind veteran signal caller Brett Favre and moves the ball with ease against the soft Dolphins defense.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 at Cleveland Browns
After a 10-6 season the Cleveland Browns are a trendy pick this NFL season, but the Cowboys are the real deal. Dallas looks sharp and will come out with something to prove in week one. Again expect the road team to lock this one up early.

The Coin Flip:
Buffalo -1 vs Seattle Seahawks
While no games this week are a true coin flip we'll look at the line with the fewest points, Seattle vs Buffalo where the Bills are favored by 1 point at home. Buffalo is improved coming into 2008 and were it not for the advent of the Jets, the Bills would be a likely playoff sleeper for most analysts this season. While all that may be true, Seattle is simply the better team in this matchup. Buffalo is improved, but the baseline was a 30th ranked offense that scored only 15.8 points per game in 2007 and Seattle will score 20+ with ease. Look for Seattle to steal one on the road in our first coin flip game of 2008.

Take the Points:
Indianapolis Colts -9.5 vs Chicago Bears
While few are doubting the Colts to win this game, and many are taking them in a blowout, I am less convinced this game is going to get away from the Bears. Chicago's defense has looked poor in the preseason and Kyle Orton is no Peyton Manning, but the Colts have had relatively little time together as a full starting unit and Chicago rarely lets games get out of hand. I'm calling for a Colts win but for the Bears to cover.

The Upset:
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at San Francisco 49ers
With the recent shakeup at quarterback I was surprised to see the line fall where it did for this game. Both sides have new quarterbacks and while the 49ers don't have the same weapons in the passing game, they do have Frank Gore who has dominated the Cardinals over his short career. San Francisco won both meetings in 2007 and I expect them to pull the upset and get the outright win against Arizona

The Sportsomniac takes no responsibility for any money won or lost due to betting on these picks.

NFL Power Rankings

Tonight kicks off the new NFL season and with it comes the first installment of the NFL Power Rankings.

The Top Ten
1. New England Patriots - While the team suffered a historic collapse in the Super Bowl that had Giants fans and the 1975 Dolphins all popping champagne, they're still the most ready to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

2. Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys look great on paper with a dynamic offense and a strong defensive secondary. Expect the 'boys to dominate the NFC and win the second toughest division in football.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning & Marvin Harrison are both healthy and Joseph Addai doesn't get the credit he deserves (much like Edge was underrated in his time in Indianapolis). While the team has some questions on the offensive line, Peyton runs the best play action in football and the Colts will again be successful, to the tune of 12-4.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars - When I said the NFC East was the second toughest division in football it is behind the AFC South. David Garrard was sensational a year ago and the addition of Jerry Porter should give him a reasonable target to throw to. Jones-Drew & Fred Taylor are the type of one-two punch rivaled by few teams in the league. Jacksonville's defense is scary enough that even if Garrard doesn't put up numbers like last season, the team is still a lock for the playoffs.

5. San Diego Chargers - While many are calling the Chargers the best team in football, I'm not entirely sold due to Phillip Rivers not looking like an elite quarterback and Shawne Merriman's injury. San Diego does have the benefit of playing the Broncos, Raiders & Chiefs twice which should mean a 5-1 or better divisional record.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers - Roethlisberger and company look sharp this season and the addition of Rashard Mendenhall gives the team a Bettis-like goal line running back. Expect the Steelers to be the true class of the AFC North, and not the Cleveland Browns.

7. Seattle Seahawks - It's a big drop from the class of the NFC (Dallas) to the next level, but Seattle leads the rest of the pack. With one of the best defenses in football and an epic 12th-man in the stands, Seattle will be ready for a division title in the NFC West.

8. New Orleans Saints - While a lot of people see Tampa Bay as the division winner, New Orleans is the class of the division. Drew Brees has the second best offense in the NFC at his disposal and the defense is strong enough to make stops when needed.

9. Green Bay Packers - While Minnesota is the favorite to win the North in many rankings, Green Bay still has a great defense and talented receivers. Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like Brett Favre, but he's looked like the best QB in the division already (Sorry Kitna fans, the guy is going to throw 20+ INTs again this year and Jackson & Orton aren't even in the discussion).

10. Philadelphia Eagles - While many will be surprised that the Eagles, and not the Giants, are the second best team in the division, a simple look at the rosters will tell the story. The Giants were great last season out of getting production from unlikely sources, but the well is starting to run dry and the Eagles are ready to return to the playoffs.

Bottom Five
28. Detroit Lions - Despite a perfect preseason, the Lions still don't have what it takes to win eight games, even in the NFC North. Questions on both sides of the ball abound and Rudi Johnson is far from the savior the team needs.

29. Miami Dolphins - While I like the Jake Long draft pick and addition of Chad Pennington, the Dolphins are still the worst team in a very difficult division.

30. St. Louis Rams - I'm done believing in the Rams the same way Lions fans are tired of being let down. St. Louis is going to struggle on the offensive line and the defense is questionable at best.

31. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have a lot of young talent and a few valuable veterans, but the team that once had the best offensive line and rushing attack in football will not be in that same ballpark. Expect the Chiefs to battle Oakland for the bottom spot in the AFC West.

32. Atlanta Falcons - While I like the future potential of Matt Ryan, he is in a spot right now where he can't be successful. The line is tough at the defense is spotty. Hopefully Ryan doesn't suffer a David Carr type of rookie season.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Who's the NL MVP?

While I rant at times about the useless stats that get thrown around in professional commentary such as winning percentage with a full moon, completion percentage against left handed corners, etc.; there are others that we live and die by as sports fans. Turnover ratio in football, shooting percentage in basketball, batting average in baseball, hot dogs per minute in professional eating. It is with the most essential baseball stats in mind, that I present the case for each of the three primary MVP candidates in the National League.

1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Utley is having a career year and it's only the start of June. With another home run tonight, Utley brought his MLB leading total to 21 home runs to compliment his .320 batting average and NL-leading 52 RBI. Utley is also slugging an impressive .680 and is the driving force behind the first place Phillies. While Utley's success translates very well into numbers, he is also carrying the Phillies to victories right now and is covering for some of his slumping teammates, like Ryan Howard who has 80 strikeouts and a .209 batting average.

2. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
While Houston isn't enjoying the same success as Philadelphia, Berkman may be playing an even larger part in his team's results than Chase Utley. With a .385 batting average, Berkman is showing he's not limited to pure power productions and the "Big Puma" is living up to his reputation of driving the ball deep. With 17 home runs and 47 RBI, he trails only the aforementioned Utley for the national league lead. Berkman is also showing his versatility by stealing 10 bases already, ranking him in the top 10 in nearly every measurable category on offense. To pose himself as a triple crown threat, Berkman also ranks second in batting average behind our third legitimate MVP contender, Chipper Jones.

3. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Chipper Jones is batting .407. I don't know how much I need to say beyond that. It is getting a little too late in the season to be batting over .400 and Chipper even has Tony Gwinn talking up his accomplishments to this point. If it weren't for Chipper, the ridiculous numbers being put up by Lance Berkman would be shining even brighter. While Jones' average gets the spotlight, he has still driven 12 home runs and batted in 35 RBI. As the only previous MVP winner, Jones can pull from his experience in 1999 on how to maintain numbers down the stretch as in that year he hit 45 HRs, 110 RBI and batted .319.

The season is still young and the massive numbers always have a tendency to level out during the course of a 162 game schedule, but to this point Utley, Berkman and Jones have looked incredibly impressive and each deserving of the distinguishing award. Before these three become complacent however, there are a few more players on the fringe that will be looking to jump into the mix.

In no particular order:
-Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Rameriez
-Brandon Webb
-Albert Puljos, Ryan Ludwick
-Dan Uggla
-Ryan Braun

At this point in the season, I can't help but vote for Berkman. I know the Astros aren't leading the division, but Berkman has looked like a men among boys at this point and is getting it done in all areas of his game. That said, Utley is heating up more than slowing down and Chipper Jones will not go quietly, especially if he can maintain his insane batting average for much of the season. The Cubs are the best team in baseball and have three talented hitters in addition to Fukudome, Soto and Theriot who are all contributing quietly. Dan Uggla's pursuit may be over if the Marlins can't stay competitive and slip down the standings in the NL East. Ryan Braun is picking up where he left off a year ago but is the victim of a mediocre team with relatively no national press. Brandon Webb has the supreme disadvantage of being a pitcher while Albert Puljos and Ryan Ludwick aren't standing out against the likes of the top three players listed.

My sleeper pick for the MVP has to be Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano is looking to improve to 8-2 tonight and is batting .366 on the season now. There are few pitchers that present nearly the type of threat that Zambrano represent at the plate each at bat.

The season is young and the NL MVP is certain to finish the year with some amazing statistics. Hopefully baseball gets the sport cleaned up so these numbers don't get marked with an asterisk that shouldn't apply.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

MLB Power Rankings - Top 10

With a new month means new Power Rankings. In parenthesis behind each team is their position in the last Top 10.

1. Chicago Cubs (3)
Chicago is led by its strong starting rotation as Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster both have collected 7 wins and have sub-3 ERAs on the season. Carlos Marmol is looking like the best setup man in the big leagues right now with a 1.75 ERA and 54 strikeouts in only 36 innings pitched. The biggest concern I have for the Cubs at this point is their poor road record. At 25-8 at the friendly confines this season, Chicago holds the major's best home record by a healthy margin. However, at 10-13 on the road the Cubs have looked like a very different team. While early in the season many teams naturally struggle a bit on the road, the Cubs disparity between home and road performance will have to lessen during a big late summer road trip.

Interesting Statistic: Carlos Zambrano is now hitting .316 with a .447 slugging percentage, higher than Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Derek Jeter and Travis Hafner.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
Philadelphia was one of my favorites coming into the season and they have done little to dissuade my arguments thus far. The Phillies are looking very strong and Chase Utley is showing no signs of slowing down. While Philadelphia may not have the type of starting rotation of most World Series contenders, they do make up for it with a potent offense. In a previous ranking I placed the Phillies 5th despite being 17-14. I'm proud to say the team has been climbing the standings since and is now comfortably 7 games above .500 and only 1/2 game back of NL East Leaders Florida.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (4)
St. Louis entered the season as something of an underdog as they were off the radar for most analysts. However, Albert Puljos is quietly putting together a strong season and starters Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer are carrying the load, combining for a 10-3 record and looking like they can maintain their fast start for the remainder of the season. For as strong as the Cubs are playing, St. Louis is still only 2 1/2 back.

4. Boston Red Sox (8)
While the Red Sox haven't been playing their best baseball of late, the team still has the Manny Rameriez & David Ortiz duo in the middle of the lineup and a strong pitching staff. However, the team slipped in my rankings due to the injury/fatigue suffered by ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. While the Red Sox do have other talented arms, Matsuzaka is clearly the class of their rotation and was on pace to battle Cliff Lee of Cleveland for the right to start the All-Star game. If he comes back healthy, Boston will certainly get a boost, but without him they may struggle to hold off Toronto.

5. Los Angeles Angels (2)
I had no choice but to drop the Angels in the rankings this month, despite putting together another winning month in May. While the Angels are still finding a way to win, the team's offensive productivity has crawled to a halt. Vladimir Guerrero's production has been incredibly limited this season, hitting only .246 with 7 HR. Previously one of the most feared hitters in the game, Guerrero is striking out over 17% of at bats and is showing even less discipline at the plate than normal.

6. Tampa Bay Rays (NR)
Be careful not to let the word get out, but Tampa is actually putting together a solid season. While many experts are calling the Rays the best team in the American League, and certainly their record supports that, the team likely does not have the type of offensive fire power necessary to hold off the Red Sox all season. Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir is a ridiculous 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA in 6 starts. BJ Upton continues to look like an All-Star and Carl Crawford is dangerous at the plate and on the base paths. Upton and Crawford already combine for 32 steals in 41 attempts. The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics have proven in the past that timely hitting, strong defense and aggressive base running can keep a team in any game, but I think the Rays still might be a season too early for this type of breakout year.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
The Diamondbacks stumbled from the No. 1 spot in last month's rankings all the way to 7. While some are placing the Diamondbacks even lower on their respective lists, I'm not that quick to call the first month a fluke. Arizona still has dynamic pitching, and while went 6-8 over the last month, the three are far too talented to struggle over the course of a season.

Interesting Statistic: Arizona leads the Majors with 21 triples and ranks 5th in runs scored (282).

8. Chicago White Sox (NR)
In a division that should have featured the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians running away from the rest of the American League, Chicago has quietly built a 2 game lead over the Minnesota Twins. The White Sox rank second in team ERA at 3.35 on the year and surprise player Carlos Quentin is looking like an MVP contender at this point in the season. If Paul Konerko (.206 batting average) and Jim Thome (.207) can wake up and start hitting the ball the surprising White Sox will carry the division lead late into the season.

9. Florida Marlins (NR)
The Marlins, much like the Rays, are an unlikely division leader this late into the season. In the competitive AL & NL East, the Florida teams don't have the type of star power that their division rivals hold, yet they continue to put notches in the win column. Dan Uggla is putting together a career year with 129 total bases and 16 home runs already, despite 60 strikeouts.

10. Toronto Blue Jays (6)
I initially planned on having the Athletics in the No. 10 spot on these rankings, but that was before the Blue Jays out scored the A's 15-4 and took 2 of 3 in their recent series. Also with AJ Burnett lowering his ERA with each of his last 5 starts and Roy Halladay continuing his long inning wins, the Jays look like contenders in the AL East.

And without explanation, the Bottom 5. Way to go NL West.

26. San Francisco Giants
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Seattle Mariners
29. Colorado Rockies
30. San Diego Padres

Saturday, May 31, 2008

It's a Sad Day to be a Pistons Fan

This column was written by guest columnist Matt Hawkins, formerly of The Bowling Green News

It’s a sad day to be a Pistons fan right now. Pistons President Joe Dumars has some difficult changes to make this off season but the easiest one of all is to get rid of Rasheed Wallace. For all the good he has done for Detroit, I can’t stand to watch another one of his outbursts or costly mistakes in a crucial playoff game for the Pistons.

Last night’s 89-81 loss to the Boston Celtics in game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals might mark the end of an era for these current Pistons, at least the end of Sheed in a Pistons uniform
After losing to the Spurs in the 2005 NBA Finals, the Pistons have lost three straight conference finals appearances and the majority of the blame should be placed on Rasheed Wallace.

Let’s flashback to the year 2005, Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Wallace left Robert Horry open for the game winning three pointer which gave the Spurs a 3-2 series lead. Even though the Pistons lost in game 7, it was this play that cost them the title.

Then there was last year against the Cavs in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Wallace fouled out with 7:44 left in the fourth quarter. Instead of heading to the bench, Sheed continued to argue with the ref, picking up two technical fouls in a major meltdown that cost them any chance at a comeback.

Of course this year was no different. Wallace got a costly technical foul in game 5 against the Celtics which gave him seven for the playoffs (one more and he would be suspended for the next game). He shot 2 for 12 from the field in game 6 which was the most important game of the year for the Pistons. His horrible shooting and turnovers down the stretch hurt the Pistons momentum as they lost a 10 point fourth quarter lead and were eliminated for the third straight year in the conference finals, all game 6 losses. I can’t believe he continues to get a pass as his defenders always say “it’s just Sheed being Sheed.”

I’m sorry but enough is enough. Pack your bags Sheed your time is up.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Doug Collins Gets Golden Opportunity

Talk about coming back for the right situation. Retired NBA Head Coach and TNT analyst Doug Collins is returning to the sidelines to coach the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are coming off a 33-49 season where the team clearly did not live up to preseason expectations.

For Collins there will be the opportunity to work with a very talented and young lineup of players, have a hand in selecting the No. 1 overall pick, and coach in a major market.

The Windy City experience will be part two for his career as he coached a young Michael Jordan and led the Chicago Bulls to an Eastern Conference Finals in 1989 before being replaced by then-assistant Phil Jackson. Collins went on to Detroit in the 90's with minimal success before becoming an analyst.

While I don't look at Doug Collins as the type of elite head coach that a town like Chicago really deserves, he will be a stabilizing factor for the team and give the type of insight and leadership that will ensure a playoff berth a year from now.

The Chicago Bulls will be a step behind the Celtics and Pistons entering next season, but should be able to live up to the hype that the team failed so miserably to achieve this year. Look for Michael Beasley to join the team in the off season as the No. 1 overall pick and further solidify the deep and talented Bulls lineup.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Celtics Win Pivotal Game 5

While the story of the night in Boston may be Kevin Garnett's 33 points and 7 rebounds or Kendrick Perkins stepping up again, this time to the tune of 18 points and 16 rebounds. Maybe it's Ray Allen finally finding his touch and going for 29 points on 9-15 shooting, including 5-6 on three pointers.

While each of those story lines make for a great reason why the Celtics won Game 5, it was Doc Rivers having his team prepared for the Pistons that really did it. The Pistons through a lot of punches and came back from a 17-point deficit late in the game but Rivers' Celtics held it together, including playing things the right way in the final two minutes. The Celtics used the clock well, got the ball in the hands of their best free throw shooter, Ray Allen. Not only that, but Boston and fouled Detroit to avoid a "Mr. Big Shot" moment in those closing seconds.

While fouling with the lead in the closing seconds is an incredibly basic strategy, practiced from AAU to the NBA, it is incredibly underutilized. I have to commend Rivers for having his team prepared and making all the right decisions during crunch time. I'm not ready to give the man the coach of the year award Byron Scott deservedly won; afterall, the Celtics almost lost to the Hawks and Cavs, but Boston really looked solid Wednesday night against Detroit.

Game 5 is the pivitol game of any 2-2 series and Boston is definitely in command, needing only one win to advance to face the Lakers, err, play in the NBA Finals.

John Calipari is the only person that can't understand the intelligence of fouling with the lead in an important game.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Pistons Even Things Up

The Detroit Pistons have tied things up with the Boston Celtics again and will be sending the series back to Bean Town. Detroit took control of the game early, putting together a 14-point lead in the first half. The Pistons led throughout and never gave up the lead. Boston made it interesting at 78-73 but could never get it down to a single possession in the closing minutes, eventually falling to the Pistons 94-75.

While Detroit had the air of control the entire night, the team saved its best basketball for the closing minutes. The Pistons were poised and hit their free throws down the stretch while Ray Allen clanked a couple hard off the iron. Most importantly of all, Chauncey Billups stepped into the action tonight. While Billups struggled from the field with 3 for 12 shooting and only 10 points, he did hit a clutch three down the stretch and looked much more comfortable on his sore hamstring.

The big contributor in tonight's matchup was Antonio McDyess. For the many Pistons fans that miss Ben Wallace's interior presence (and trust me, Chicago and Cleveland would be happy to give him back, especially at his salary) Antonio McDyess has filled the void very nicely. 'Dyess has stepped into the position as another role player on the team full of veterans and is really looking good, sticking close to his regular season numbers even against tougher players that have demanded more from him on the defensive end.

Now with the series headed back to Boston at 2-2 it's now a best of three with two games at home for the Celtics. Boston is still an impressive 9-1 at home but Detroit did etch that 1 into the otherwise perfect record at home and does not fear playing in the Garden. In Game 5 expect a close contest and expect to see the Pistons come out on top, 93-89.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Memo to Joakim Noah: You are not in college any more.



Good thinking. Smoking weed has done great things for so many other professional athletes' careers

While compiling this article, I was going to list the athletes who have been arrested for marijuana possession in the past year but I had hand cramps before I was done with the Cincinnati Bengals lineup. Welcome to the club Joakim. Ricky Williams wants to know if he can braid your hair.

Despite being "the man" in Gainsville during his college career at the University of Florida and winning the 2006 NCAA Championship, Joakim Noah is taking his college fame a bit too far.

The bushy-haired rookie of the Chicago Bulls was busted early Sunday morning when he was stopped in Gainsville for drinking in public. When he was searched by police they discovered a bag of marijuana in his pocket.

While it may have been cool to hang around Gainsville as a student, you have to know when to walk away. Noah was certainly a popular figure on campus; he's identifiable, famous and a big personality. There's even the status of smoking in college and being involved in parties, but at some point that pressure has to go away and be replaced by the maturity of someone playing professional sports.

While Joakim Noah is hardly a star for the Chicago Bulls, he was a solid contributor as a rookie and showed signs of being a strong rebounding and scoring boost, along with his emotional spark he gives when in the lineup. According to ESPN.com's article, the Bulls' only comment was one from General Manager John Paxton who expressed his disappointment.

Just disappointment? Really? Are the Bulls really going to call it quits with disappointment? After an under performing season where the team entered the season as one of the Eastern Conference favorites, Chicago failed to make the playoffs despite being there a year ago and looking improved from '06-'07. This is a chance to make a statement as a franchise. Two years from now Chicago does not want to be in the same spot as the New York Knicks are right now, with troubled players and more personality than teamwork.

While there is not always a direct correlation between off the court issues and a team's success, there certainly isn't evidence to show it benefits a franchise. Chicago should come down hard on Joakim Noah. As for Noah, he needs to figure out if he still wants to be the big man in Gainsville or make a name for himself in the NBA.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Paterno Says it All

As someone who has grown up in Big Ten country, constantly cheering against Penn State, I can't help but respect Joe Paterno right now. Joe Paterno said in an interview that the reasons given by the college football commissioners are 'bogus' and stated that he can't foresee a playoff in the near future.

My favorite quote from the interview expressed Paterno's frustration and also his timeless stance as a coach at Penn State. "Paterno, who is entering his 43rd season as Penn State's head coach said, 'I'm only going to be a head coach another 10 or 15 years, and I don't think it will happen by then.'" I think it's sad that Joe Paterno is 81-years old and even he thinks the rest of college football is too old fashioned to see what would be best for the sport in form of a playoff.

I'm embarrassed to say that as a Big Ten fan the conference does not support the playoff, and that only the ACC and SEC were in favor of continued discussion regarding the proposed playoff system.

If I hear the argument of missing too much class time again, I think I'll be sick. How many students are in class from December 18 & January 7? None. Student athletes? None. Having a game the week of Christmas and the BCS Championship the week of New Years makes perfect sense, and encourages teams to play a tougher schedule as having one or two losses won't necessarily prevent an appearance in the championship.

For people who argue that a playoff would water down the regular season have to consider that a playoff does not need to be 64 teams like the NCAA Tournament where the top half of every conference received a near automatic berth. Instead, a 4 or 8 team field allows the elite programs to participate while preserving the sanctity and excitement of each week of the regular season.

Later in the story picked up by the Associated Press Paterno commented on his decision to not participate in the Coaches' Poll due to being required to vote for the BCS Champion in the final poll, something Paterno disagreed with in 2004 when undefeated Auburn was left out of the title game but won its bowl.

Anyone else hoping Joe Paterno sticks it out to 100 years old and 500 career wins?

"And down goes Fraizer"

The Boston Celtics were perfect for the first two rounds at home. 8-0. In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals the Celtics moved that mark to 9-0 and asserted their home dominance over the Pistons. In Game 2, it was a different story.

The Detroit Pistons came out and looked prepared to play and made the adjustments needed to contain Kevin Garnett. Most importantly, the Pistons were able to quiet the crowd when the Celtics made their push. Every time Boston hit a couple big shots, Detroit was poised with a 3-pointer from the quarter or a slashing layup, something the San Antonio Spurs couldn't do last night in Los Angeles.

While I didn't appreciate the "Rodney Stucky is like Dwayne Wade" comment coming from the sidelines, the kid did look good coming off the bench with 13 points and a needed spark. Rasheed Wallace looked much more comfortable and finally hit a 3-pointer.

Detroit looked like a team with desire, instead of a lethargic former champion as they did in the first game of the series. The energy level in The Palace is going to be huge this weekend and Boston will have the 0-6 road record staring them square in the face until the ball tips for Game 3.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Lakes Pull out Game 1

Watching the Spurs/Lakers game tonight it felt like watching the big brother play against his little brother. The Spurs showed their dominance and looked to squash the Lakers early, leading 65-45 at one point. However, the Lakers proved they wouldn't be bullied around by turning things around and showing they can hang with the big kids now.

While Tim Duncan's stat line of 30 points & 18 rebounds looks sensational, almost all of his production came in the first 2 1/2 quarters of the game. As the game progressed, Kobe Bryant looked like the MVP (something that's hard for me to admit) and completely took the game over. During a 14-0 run, Kobe had his hands in every play. When Bryant wasn't hitting the shot, he was drawing the extra defender and finding his open teammate. Thankfully for Bryant, Gasol and Odom both stepped up and hit the shots they needed, and Bruce Bowen was off the court.

Watching the last two minutes of tonight's game, it was very clear that the referees had no control over what was happening on the court. I completely understand that an official doesn't want to make the call that ruins the game for one team and I'm as big a fan of the "let them play" mentality as anyone else, but let's also not forget about consistency. There were loose balls where the scene resembled a mosh pit and not a professional basketball game. The horrible call with 1:07 left to give the Lakers possession and the awful makeup call (or lack of call) when Ginobili clearly fouled Gasol was amateur.

The Spurs came into Game 1 tired from a long series and a ridiculous travel schedule, but they played the Lakers tough. A weaker team with a lesser coach would let that be defeating, to lose such a big lead, but Gregg Popovich will use it as a tool to improve for Game 2. Despite the loss, I'm still behind my pick of the Spurs in 6.

Anyone else happy to see some fire coming from Tim Duncan?

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Cowboys Break Bank

Earlier in the off season the Oakland Raiders proved to be the most financial irresponsible in blowing cash on Javon Walker ($55 million), Tommy Kelly ($50+ million), and Gibril Wilson ($39 million). While I look at Walker as a second tier but solid receiver, Kelly as a decent tackle and Wilson as a serviceable - yet not dominant - safety, the team clearly overpaid. Well move over Oakland, Dallas is raising the bar!

Marion Barber is a great running back. From his days in Minnesota, it was clear he had the type of power that would make him a treat to watch in the NFL. Barber has been a work horse for Dallas since joining the team, and has been a touchdown machine for fantasy players and Tony Romo alike. While Barber certainly runs as hard as any player this side of Maurice Jones-Drew, he likely will never live up to the 7-year, $45 million contract he just inked. To put it into perspective, that money catapults Barber into the same paygrade as LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson. The deal also included a guaranteed $16 million.

While I'm in favor of looking at Barber as a better than average running back, but neither in college nor in the NFL has he ever carried the full load for his team, making me curious why he is getting paid as an elite back. Also, Dallas just drafted Felix Jones from Arkansas, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry in his collegiate career. If Dallas wants Barber to be an elite back, then it's curious for them to spend first round money on a complimentary RB.

To make sure the spending wasn't limited to the offense, Jerry Jones wrapped up Terence Newman to a 6-year, $50.2 million deal, with $22.5 million in guarantees.

Newman and Barber are both strong contributors to the Dallas Cowboys and warranted extensions, but the amount of money being thrown around by the Cowboys is not indicative of one that will be financially free in the future to make any necessary moves. Jerry Jones is putting all of his eggs in the Tony Romo basket, let's hope for him that Jessica stays away and Dallas can get it done in 2008.

Bulls get No. 1 Pick

There are few things that more consistently keep sports insomniacs up late at night than a good mock draft. For fantasy fans you can now log on to CBS Sportsline and jump into an NFL mock draft or join up a late start fantasy baseball league. A few weeks ago, NFL analysts and casual fans alike spent hours with the lights down in front of a monitor, studying their team's strengths and weaknesses and evaluating it against the draft class.

Now NBA followers get their chance to break down the class with the lottery in place. Below are the lottery selections.

1. Chicago Bulls
2. Miami Heat
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Seattle/New Orleans SuperSonics
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. New York Knicks
7. Los Angeles Clippers
8. Milwaukee Bucks
9. Charlotte Bobcats
10. New Jersey Nets
11. Indiana Pacers
12. Sacramento Kings
13. Portland Trailblazers
14. Golden State Warriors

Well Chicago, which is going to be? Do you go Michael Beasley, the dominant big man from Kansas State, or Memphis star Derrick Rose who stepped up big in the tournament. As I explained during the NCAA Tournament, I really didn't get caught up in the super hype of Derrick Rose, and while he is clearly one of the top 10-15 college players of the year, I still look at O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon and D.J. Augustin as better players, among others (see previous article).

With the draft a ways away, the mock drafts are beginning, and questions on who the top player of 2008 will be is going to be debated for weeks. Not trying to ruin the suspense for everyone, but Beasley is the best pick for Chicago and the best player in the class.

For some good reading, check out Chad Ford's mock draft, one of the ten best columnists in the country.

Monday, May 19, 2008

8-0, 0-6. Celtics to face Pistons

Paul Pierce looked good on Sunday. As someone who has given Pierce a lot of grief for taking difficult shots instead of looking toward teammates with more open looks, I must say he was dominant in Game 7 against the Cavs. The only person on the court was LeBron James who demonstrated he can almost carry a team on his back as he was a missed layup near the end of the 4th quarter away from getting Cleveland within one possession and a potential upset.

On 13-23 shooting and 11-12 from the line, Pierce had the hot hand all night. However, his biggest play was the dive for the loose ball coming off the jump ball that Cleveland should have controlled. Pierce showed his emotion and proved he can still play with the best in the league and while he has taken a back seat to Garnett and Ray Allen to a certain extent, he looked like the star of Boston for 48 minutes.

While Pierce surprised me on Sunday, I wasn't shocked to see the Celtics beat out the Cavaliers to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. After all, Boston has been undefeated at home all postseason. The problem is, they are still winless on the road. While I know Boston has home court advantage through the playoffs, I'm not foolish enough to think they'll go 16-0 en route to an NBA Title. Detroit proved during the regular season that they can hang with Boston and will almost certainly win a game in Boston.

The Detroit Pistons are going to create problems for the Celtics. The Pistons are a hard nose team that has played in the last five Eastern Finals and has proven they can win on the road. Boston, has not. KG has never played in a Conference Finals. Paul Pierce stepped up big tonight, so I'll give him an exemption from any comparisons. Ray Allen already disappeared from the face of the earth once the playoffs hit, so again, I'll pass on saying much there.

While I'm far from a Pistons fan, they have been my favorite from the start of the season to come out of the East and Boston's inability to play on the road hasn't changed that prediction. Look out Boston, Detroit is coming to town!