The Lock - Week 5

In week 4 bettors again profited behind a 4-1 record with correct picks of Washington over Dallas, Tampa over Green Bay, San Diego -7.5 over Oakland and Cleveland over Cincy. We missed only on Atlanta vs Carolina. In week 5 there are some enticing matchups again and fresh off a trip to Vegas, I can tell you the sports books can expect some good betting on a few of these picks.

The Lock:
Indianapolis -3 at Houston
The Colts have struggled to find a rhythm but have shown fourth quarter promise against Minnesota and Jacksonville in consecutive weeks and a bye last week should have helped solidify the inconsistent offense. Look for the type of Colts offense we all expect this week in what will likely be a high scoring game won by the Colts going away.

Denver -3 vs Tampa Bay
As proven by my betting record in Tampa games, I really like the Buccaneers this season but this is a match up their secondary can't handle. Denver is looking too strong right now and while I think the Tampa offense will have some success against the Bronco defense, I don't see them keeping pace with Jay Cutler and company.

The Coinflip:
Buffalo -1.5 at Arizona
With the tightest line of the week Buffalo travels to University of Phoenix Stadium to play the Cardinals that are in the midst of an early season losing streak. For the Cardinals this is an important game to win but Buffalo is simply too focused right now to drop its first of the season here.

Take the Points:
Washington +6 at Philadelphia
For those who have been following The Lock since the start of the season it's been pretty obvious my feelings have changed on Washington, and I'm buying as much into Jim Zorn as Jason Campbell and the Redskins players. Playing at Philly in Week 5 is going to be difficult but the team is coming off a big win against Dallas and the offense is starting to click. Campbell looks comfortable in the pocket and Portis is finding running room. Even if Philly wins this game, it will fall within the 6 point spread. Take Washington and the six.

The Upset:
Detroit +3.5 vs Chicago
As an enormous Bears fan it pains me to pick Detroit as the upset of the week. The Lions have looked horrible all season but this is exactly the type of game Bears fans expect to slip up. With both starting corners out of the game Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson should find a lot of open room in the secondary and a few big strikes will be all it takes for the Lions to get ahead. Unless the Bears can put a lot of pressure on Jon Kitna early and often this will be a week 5 upset for the Chicago Bears.