Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Offseason Confidential: Chicago Bears





In reviewing the 2010 season for the Chicago Bears, despite falling short of reaching the Super Bowl, by early season expectations, the result can only be considered a success. Picked by many to finish third in the NFC North, Chicago posted an 11-5 overall record including a 5-1 mark against the division. While Chicago narrowly missed the opportunity to represent the NFC against Pittsburgh, the team just as easily could have been 0-2 against the Detroit Lions. 2011 is an important season for many reasons in Chicago and despite a contract extension for Lovie Smith, pressure abounds. Check out Chicago's keys to success for the upcoming season.



1. Offensive Line
It's no mystery that Mike Martz runs one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL and with a series of 7-step drops in the playbook, it puts a lot of pressure on the offensive line. To start the 2010 season the offensive line took a beating, most noticeably at the hands of the New York Giants who embarrassed the previously-unbeaten Bears on national TV. As the season went on, Chicago was able to put together a patchwork O-Line that kept Cutler relatively upright, but still struggled to get the push on rushing plays that made Matt Forte successful in his rookie season two years ago. With a late first round pick, many worried Chicago would not be able to address the greatest need area with a quality pick, but Gabe Carimi of Wisconsin fell to them at 29 and provides a steady tackle who should start from day one.

2. Development of Receiving Corp
Johnny Knox and Devin Hester combine to be two of the fastest receivers in the game, probably rivaled only by DeShaun Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in Philadelphia. What the Bears' tandem does not have that the Eagles enjoy, is a lot of success and touchdown receptions from their primary receivers. While Knox and Hester have the type of open field moves and quickness to make defenders miss, they have struggled to get the ball in their hands in the first place. Hester's inability to run consistent routes and break out as a legitimate starter makes it difficult for Knox, Olsen and Forte to find open space as Hester does not command the safety help that a player of his speed should demand. The Bears will go as far as their defense takes them, but to avoid a myriad of tight games against mediocre teams, the Bears receivers will need to put more points on the board in 2011.

3. Health
Few teams in 2010, or any season for that matter, enjoyed the level of health like that of the Chicago Bears. With a team with an aging defense and a quarterback who suffered behind a beleaguered offensive line for the first half of the year, Chicago was surprisingly not bitten by the injury bug. All Pro linebacker Brian Urlacher logged a full season for the first time in years and he was joined by an uncharacteristically healthy defense. While Chicago is unlikely to be as fortunate in 2011, the ability to keep key players on the field is essential. Urlacher, Cutler, Peppers, Briggs, Kreutz and company provide a lot of firepower to the Bears roster, but there is not enough depth behind them, particularly at quarterback, to lose multiple star players.

4. Mike Martz and Jay Cutler Synergy
With a pass-first approach and the strong arm of Jay Cutler, fans should expect better than 188 passing yards per game from Chicago. While Matt Forte provides a solid running back for the Bears' offense, being able to pick up third and long situations was a struggle in 2010. While Lovie Smith received a contract extension after making a playoff run, Mike Martz did not enjoy the same job security and will have to prove himself this season. To be successful, Martz will need to get Cutler living within the reads of his system and the protection he needs to get the down field throws to open receivers.

Recommended Reading: Detroit Lions Offseason Confidential Green Bay Packers Offseason Confidential

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Offseason Confidential: Green Bay Packers




It may seem odd to begin a series by including the reigning Super Bowl Champions, but the Green Bay Packers have to complete one of the most difficult tasks asked of any franchise, to repeat as champions. Eight times the champion has repeated in NFL history and only once in the past ten years (New England in 2004, 2005).

In 2010 Green Bay road incredible momentum and the wild card through the NFC playoffs en route to beating the Pittsburgh Steelers and bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to Title Town for the first time since No. 4 led the way in 1997. Now in 2011, the Packers go from the list of favorite breakout teams to the team with a bullseye on their backs. Below are some key story lines to follow as the Packers work toward Lucas Oil Stadium and a return trip to the Super Bowl.

1. Running Back Health
'Running Back By Committee' does not begin to describe how the Packers approached the position in 2010. Short of Matt Flynn lining up as the single back, the Packers used just about everyone else available to take a try at running back. While the Packers were able to rely heavily on rookie James Starks and a myriad of others in 2010, the team saw a serious drop in production with Ryan Grant hitting IR early in the year. As Grant suits up for what should be a full and healthy 2011, expect Green Bay's offense to find some balance.

2. Aaron Rodgers Handling the Pressure
In 2010 Aaron Rodgers was the sexy pick as the next big quarterback. Now, Rodgers firmly has that distinction and the pressure associated with every team gameplanning for him all season. With the NFC North and the rest of the NFL gunning for Rodgers each week, it will be important for him to handle the pressure of playing against some great defenses, but also playing with the pressure of being "The Man" in Title Town. During his first seasons at the helm, Rodgers was able to live in the shadow of being not Brett Favre and instead now will begin carving out his own legacy. With the NFL Lockout still looming large, the Packers have been one of the least active teams in coordinating group workouts, something that could hurt a team recovering from a multitude of injuries. Rodgers is the key again for the Packers this season - making a repeat trip to the Super Bowl is made much easier if Rodgers maintains his playoff form of a year ago.

3. Veteran Experience vs. Veteran Age
While the star of the Super Bowl run was Aaron Rodgers and his championship belt, the veteran experience on the team made the deep playoff run possible. Charles Woodson and Donald Driver had the most to gain and most to lose a year ago. For Woodson and Driver, 2010 was their best shot at winning a championship for their career, and they were able to cash in. The Packers enter the 2011 season with some exciting young talent on defense with BJ Raji, Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk, but in a pass-first league, a shutdown corner like Woodson is essential in locking up the opposition's No. 1 wide receiver. While Greg Jennings gets a lot of hype for being the go-to receiver in Green Bay, it is Donald Driver and his flawless route running that provides so many critical third down conversions. In 2010, Woodson and Driver were leaders on defense and offense and provided the veteran support the team needed; now the Packers need to hope their age doesn't begin to make them a liability as they enter the twilight of their careers.

4. Jermichael Finley
Entering 2010, many sports fans, and almost all Fantasy Football enthusiasts, were labeling Finley as the next Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez. Before Finley got the chance, he also found his way to injured reserve. While Andrew Quarless and Donald Lee were serviceable at the Tight End position, adding Finley to the offense will be needed in Green Bay. To get out of the NFC, the need to go through New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta are likely again this season, and to do so Green Bay will need every offensive weapon available. A torn meniscus is relatively minor in the world of knee injuries, but following a long battle with infection, Finley's recovery time has lengthened and he needs training camp to get back up to football speed.

Recommended Reading: Detroit Lions Offseason Confidential

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Offseason Confidential: Detroit Lions




Today is the first in a series of posts titled "Offseason Confidential" with the initial focus team being the oft-discussed Detroit Lions.

After years of suffering, including a torrid 0-16 season, the Detroit Lions will enter the 2011 season as one of the most hyped teams in the NFL. While I still expect the Lions to fall comfortably in the bottom half of the NFC North, there is a lot of reason for optimism. Below is a breakdown of story lines to follow and big determinants of the team's success in making its first playoff appearance in more than a decade.

1. The Health of Matthew Stafford
While I'm a fan of the adage that "the most important player is the backup quarterback," tell that to those backing up Peyton and Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers or Brett Favre. The health of Matthew Stafford will mean more than any other factor to the Lions in the upcoming season. After enduring the substandard play of backups Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton, the Lions offense needs the consistency of a pocket passer who can complete every throw in the playbook. When healthy, Stafford appears to be exactly that. For the Lions to be a true playoff contender, Stafford will have to shed his glass chin moniker and slide a bit more often to remain a steady contributor at the quarterback position. Injuries have prevented Stafford from showing franchise quarterback potential and 2011 is a make or break season for the former No. 1 overall pick.


2. Front Four Protecting Back Seven
Typically when we talk about protection along the line, we're referring to the left tackle and guard watching the blind side of the quarterback. While that is a necessary story line to follow for the Lions as well, more importantly for this team to stay competitive will be hiding the glaring holes remaining in the defense. The Lions addressed one of their biggest strength areas, the defensive line, with their first overall selection by selecting Nick Fairley No. 12 overall. By picking a potential elite defensive tackle, the Lions now have a defensive front four that rivals teams like Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Green Bay and Chicago. However, the selection did little to help at linebacker and in the secondary. What this pick should allow, is for Detroit to put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and prevent the sketchy corners from having to cover downfield for long periods of time.

3. Continued Draft Success
While Nick Fairley was certainly a "best player available" selection, the Lions made what I would consider a few questionable picks later in the draft as well. Instead of addressing needs at offensive line, cornerback or linebacker, the team played to areas of strength. Boise State Wide Receiver Titus Young and Illinois Running Back Mikel Leshoure play impact positions that both look great in highlight reels, but may not influence games on Sunday as much as a less-flashy selection. The Lions did find a needed outside linebacker with their fifth round selection in Douglas Hogue and offensive line with Johnny Culbreath, but are project players and may not find their way to the 53-man roster. That will put added pressure on the Lions' early selections to carry the class and make large gains on offense. It's clear Detroit is making a push for a breakthrough season and by adding a couple offensive weapons with the return of Matthew Stafford, the Lions will have a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. The big drawback, is scoring 26 points per game might not be enough to win most weeks.

4. Avoid the Slow Start
In each of the last several seasons, Detroit has been out of contention before hitting its bye week. One reason the Lions have so much hype entering 2011 is due to their strong finish to the 2010 season, including four consecutive wins to finish 6-10. For the Lions to make the transition to playoff contender, they will need to have at least 4 wins, before hitting their bye in week 9. Detroit opens with Tampa, Kansas City, Minnesota, Dallas, Chicago, San Francisco, Atlanta and Denver. The second half gets tougher with two against Green Bay, the road half of the Chicago series and games against New Orleans and San Diego.

Recommended Reading: Green Bay Packers Offseason Confidential Home Page

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Bulls Collapse, Heat Advance




It's only a matter of time until #epicfail starts trending on Twitter. The Bulls absolutely collapsed and gave away Game 5 tonight in Chicago. Holding a 13-point fourth quarter lead, the Bulls ended the game by allowing the Heat to rip off a 16-3 run that included clutch shots by Dewayne Wade and LeBron James. Wade completed a 4-point play while LeBron hit a three to tie the game at 79 and then another basket to put the Heat up 81-79.

While LeBron and D-Wade stepped up with clutch plays down the end, league MVP, Derrick Rose, wilted. In the last 90 seconds of the game, Rose committed a costly turn over, missed a potential game-tying free throw, and ultimately failed to create an open look for himself or a teammate on the final possession of the game, leading to him being blocked as time expired.

Credit where credit is due, Miami did everything they needed to do to win the game late, but Chicago choked tonight's game away much more than Miami won it. Entering the series I was a believer in Chicago and thought the Heat would suffer a hangover from their excessive celebration over Boston. While the Heat were hung over in Game 1, that didn't last and Chicago failed to close out another game where they had control late.

Even Russell Westbrook thinks the Bulls looked inexperienced tonight.

Phillies, Reds entertain Sportsomniacs

Despite an East coast venue, the Phillies and Reds treated us to a late night West coast finish, wrapping up at 1:19 am after taking 19-innings to settle at 5-4 Phillies. With over six hours of game time and a quality start from Roy Halladay, the Phillies relied upon 2B Wilson Valdez to come in and close out the game in the 19th.

After playing to a 3-3 tie in nine innings, the Reds and Phillies traded runs in the 10th, including a solo shot by Ryan Howard to keep the game alive. For the next several innings, relief pitchers for both sides locked down the offenses. In the top of the 19th, Philadelphia took Wilson Valdez from 2B and moved him to the mound. Ruiz became the first position player since Brett Mayne in 2000 to win a Major League game and the first since Babe Ruth in 1921 to win a game in which that player started in the field.

The game reminded me of the 22-inning marathon between the Rockis and Padres that I covered on this site in 2008. With a combined 600 pitches, 33 left on base and 16 pitchers used, the Phillies and Reds are both going to be dragging come 1:05pm today when the two meet again. Just as I did in 2008, I have to ask, would Ernie Banks make his famous "Let's play two!" call after a game like this?

Monday, May 23, 2011

Game 4 a "Must Win" for Chicago

The Bulls now find themselves in a 1-2 hole and facing game 4 on the road Tuesday. ESPN continues to trump on its overused statistic of 86% of teams winning game 3 in a 1-1 series go on to win the series. The 2004 Boston Redsox couldn't care less about statistics than the Bulls do right now. This has nothing to do with history and everything to do with the Miami Heat team that Coach Erik Spoelstra brings on to the court every night.

Despite coming out of the gates strong to start the game and reclaiming the lead late, the Chicago Bulls did not give the impression that they were going to steal their first road game of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami controlled tempo throughout the second half and any time the Bulls got something going, it was quickly answered by a contested basket by Chris Bosh or LeBron James creating space for himself or another Heat player to knock down a shot.

While James, Wade and Bosh will have quiet games and the unlikely event of at least two of the "big three" struggling could certainly lead to a Bulls win, but the unpopular truth in Chicago is that the Heat at their best is likely better than the Bulls at their best. Game 3 helped to rectify Chris Bosh's credibility and he now has two 30+ point performances in the series.

Look for Chicago to come out with a strong focus on interior defense in game 4 and attempt to keep Lebron and D-Wade out of the painted area. While it ended badly in game 3, the Bulls would still rather have Chris Bosh beat them on a night than give easy interior baskets from the Heats perimeter players.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Ooooh No, Macho Man Dies at 58



Despite growing up as a "Hulkamaniac," toting my Hulk Hogan lunch box to school and cheering against Randy Savage each Monday Night, I was saddened to hear of the passing of the Macho Man.



Randy "Macho Man" Savage was killed Friday when he lost control of his Jeep Wrangler and struck a tree. His wife, Barbara, was also involved in the accident but is expected to fully recover from minor injuries.



To honor the former wrestling great, tonight I picked up a couple Slim Jims and dug out my old Wrestling Buddies out of a box in the basement, conducted some flying elbows off the top of the couch, and returned to childhood fantasies of Miss Elizabeth. Oooooh yeah, he will be missed.










Friday, May 20, 2011

Armstrong PED Accusation Meaningless

Lance Armstrong's former cycling teammate, Tyler Hamilton, made accusations on CBS's 60 Minutes that he witnessed Armstrong inject EPO during the 1999 season and during training for the 2000 and 2001 Tour de France.

If the allegations were instead that Mark O'Meara witnessed Tiger Woods inject himself or Mike Mussina charging Derek Jeter with doping, this would be major news. A world-class athlete, free from major speculation of using PEDs, during a time when major testing was not in place. Instead, the accusation comes in a sport that is historically dirty, against the second most accused athlete in professional athletics, trailing only Barry Bonds in juicing allegations, during a time in his career when he was tested regularly.

While I'm not prone to trust Armstrong, I have a difficult time with someone being accused ten years after the event by a teammate who recently retired and lost his main source of income, all while there are negative tests to support Armstrong during that time frame. The one shred of credibility Hamilton has comes with his own admission of years of doping after adamant denial during his competitive years.

In sports there is a saying I've always felt rang true - "If you're not cheating, you're not trying." To me that always meant trying to find an edge and stretching rules (i.e. LeBron's crab walk, NFL corners holding receivers jersey's during press coverage, pitchers putting substances in their gloves or on their hats to doctor a pitch, etc.) and steroids go well beyond that adage. When every major cycling champion has won under suspicion of PED use, we should not be at all surprised if Armstrong is some day found dirty, but until we have a test, this allegation will remain simply that.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

James, Haslem the Difference as Heat Draw Even

Taj Gibson had the dunk(s) of the season in Game 1 against Miami and provided the spark the Bulls needed to pull away over a sluggish Miami team, still reeling from its celebration over defeating Boston. While the Heat thought they won their first of seven NBA Championships in round two, the Bulls were closing out the Hawks and focusing on winning Game 1 of the East Finals. Gibson, Boozer and the rest of the supporting cast contributed to lifting the Bulls to an early 1-0 series lead.

Game 2 is in the books and despite a gritty comeback to tie the game at 73-73 after trailing by 11 in the 3rd quarter, Chicago could not get over the hump. Each time Derrick Rose got his hands on the basketball, particularly late in the game, he was met by help defense and blocked lanes to the hoop. That didn't stop Rose, the only Bulls' player able to create his own shot, from making a lot of overly aggressive moves to the basket and forcing shots late in the shot clock.

While Rose was never able to get the support he needed on the offensive end, LeBron James and Dewayne Wade certainly got the help they needed from recently returned Udonis Haslem. As LeBron faced a resurgence of Bulls defense and Wade and Bosh spent time on the bench, Haslem grabbed offensive rebounds and knocked down open looks to give Miami a big boost in the second half. However, in the end it was James who closed out Chicago, hitting a clutch three-pointer as the shot clock expired to break the 73-all tie and start the 12-2 run that closed out the game.

Tonight's game taught us many things. First, Chicago can stay competitive even without a stellar game from Rose who was 7-23 from the field. Second, Miami has more mental toughness than they showed during the regular season. The Heat would have folded in February when the Bulls tied things up in the fourth quarter, but James was able to lead his team with big shots and close out the game. Third, it will be the role players that make the difference. While Gibson and Deng played big in game one, it was Haslem in game two.

In a look ahead to game three, expect perimeter shooting to be a bigger part of the Bulls offense and Miami to continue to try and lock down the lane from Derrick Rose, much as they did in game two. I stand by the prediction of Bulls in six.

Larry Bird Sighting in Dallas



Larry Bird has aged tremendously well. Growing an extra three inches and suiting up in No. 41 instead of his standard green and white 33 was enough to confuse the Oklahoma City Thunder.





For years I've considered Dirk Nowitzki the toughest player to guard in the NBA. Each year we fall in love with a new dominant point guard (see the evolution from Chris Paul to Deron Williams to Derrick Rose with John Wall on the horizon), but truly there is not a player in the NBA that can match up with Dirk. At 7' tall, Nowitzki is a matchup nightmare and that mismatch proved the reason why Dallas knocked off LA to the tune of a 4-0 sweep. Lamar Odom is one of the few players who athletically can match up with Nowitzki, and neither he nor Pau Gasol wanted anything to do with guarding him.





At 12/15 from the field and 24/24 from the free throw line for 48 points, Nowitzki's performance to open the Western Conference Finals is easily the best so far in these playoffs.





The series is still young and Kevin Durant will continue to get his (10/18 and 18/19 on free throws himself for 40 points), but as long as the German Larry Bird continues to find his shot and force his way to the line, OKC is in for an uphill battle.

MLB Power Rankings

As we hit the quarter pole of the MLB season, we finally have enough to start separating the pretenders (Cleveland?) from the contenders (nobody else in the AL Central?).

1. Philadelphia Phillies - This should be no surprise as the Phils have the best starting rotation in the majors despite giving Cliff Lee no support

2. Cleveland Indians - Despite my personal doubts, it is hard to rank the team with the major's best record and highest run differential any lower than second. A weak AL Central looks wide open

3. Cincinnati Reds - The Reds have dominated the NL Central with a 20-10 division record

4. Tampa Bay Rays - After losing Manny Ramierez to retirement and playing with Longoria for much of the season, the Rays are showing a lot of life and are the surprise leaders of the AL East

5. Florida Marlins - Another team that gives me doubts about their staying power, but the Marlins have looked impressive and a 3.38 team ERA will keep them in a lot of games

6. New York Yankees - Despite massive slumps from Jeter, Posada and A-Rod over the past 20 games, the Yankees are still within striking distance of Tampa

7. Atlanta Braves - Already the third NL East team to make the list, the post-Bobby Cox braves are looking solid at six games above .500 and the second best run differential in MLB

8. Detroit Tigers - As a Michigan resident I have a tough time believing in this team, but the Tigers are rallying, posting the best record over the last 10 games in the majors

9. Boston Redsox - Don't let the near .500 record fool you, the Red Sox will be part of fall baseball

10. St. Louis Cardinals - The best hitting team in baseball is doing it all with a quiet 2011 from its star, Albert Pujols

Waiting to wake up: Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers,

Jeter, Posada - Time to Accept your Fate

As one of the few American sports fans that does not have an overwhelming opinion on the Yankees, either positively or negatively, I must say that the Sportscenter lead most nights is annoying. That said, I found the recent contract negotiations with Derek Jeter and the self-imposed benching by Jorge Posada to be some of the most interesting stories of the young season. In reality, Jeter (36) and Posada (39), have no real business trying to dictate anything in New York. While their slumps are likely temporary, they will be more pronounced than in past years and the mortality of age is set in for the two Yankee stalwarts of the past fifteen years.

Nowhere in the lineup will you find Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill or Tino Martinez. Gone are Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi. The new faces of the Yankees are Mark Texiera, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano. While Jeter and Posada are paid like more productive players at their respective positions, Troy Tulowitzki and Joe Mauer, they play like men well into the twilight of their careers.

Only in New York could these two continue to make a combined $27 million in 2011, but also only in New York do fans have a supreme intolerance for scuffling performance. With Jeter showing range similar to Prince Fielder at short stop and Posada failing to hit his weight, it is only a matter of time for the Yankee lore to wear off these two and fans to demand more production.

It's time for Mariano Rivera to share a little of whatever he's taking with his two struggling teammates in New York before 'The Captain' finds his way to left field and Jorge Posada takes a permanent seat on the bench.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Heat, Bulls Square off in East

With 11.1 million viewers to open the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bulls and Heat combined to become the most watched sporting event ever on TNT. Quite simply, fans want to see stars and in a player-first league, there are no bigger names than the 2.5 stars in Miami and league-MVP Derrick Rose.

Stopping Dewayne Wade and LeBron James for an entire series simply will not happen. While the Bulls had the second best scoring defense during the regular season (second only to a Boston team that Miami destroyed en route to this series), prolific scorers such as Wade and James can not be shut down for an entire series. One important area for Chicago will be in avoiding dips in offensive production and long runs by Miami. With passable three-point threats along side Wade and James, Miami has the ability to score in waves and the Bulls have shown that with Derrick Rose on the bench, the team is prone to droughts on the offensive end.

The key to this series rests squarely in the Bulls front court. No one will be surprised when Derrick Rose scores 30+ in a game, but Carlos Boozer's ability to outplay Chris "Glass Chin" Bosh will be important. If out rebounding the Heat on the offensive glass 19-6 (leading to a 31-8 edge in second chance points) in game 1 is any indication, the Bulls will out hustle and out physical Miami all series long.

Expect Carlos Boozer to shed the tag of 'consolation prize' from this past summer's free agent sweepstakes and LeBron's premature celebration after closing out Boston to come back and bite him. Bulls in six.