Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Offseason Confidential: Chicago Bears





In reviewing the 2010 season for the Chicago Bears, despite falling short of reaching the Super Bowl, by early season expectations, the result can only be considered a success. Picked by many to finish third in the NFC North, Chicago posted an 11-5 overall record including a 5-1 mark against the division. While Chicago narrowly missed the opportunity to represent the NFC against Pittsburgh, the team just as easily could have been 0-2 against the Detroit Lions. 2011 is an important season for many reasons in Chicago and despite a contract extension for Lovie Smith, pressure abounds. Check out Chicago's keys to success for the upcoming season.



1. Offensive Line
It's no mystery that Mike Martz runs one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL and with a series of 7-step drops in the playbook, it puts a lot of pressure on the offensive line. To start the 2010 season the offensive line took a beating, most noticeably at the hands of the New York Giants who embarrassed the previously-unbeaten Bears on national TV. As the season went on, Chicago was able to put together a patchwork O-Line that kept Cutler relatively upright, but still struggled to get the push on rushing plays that made Matt Forte successful in his rookie season two years ago. With a late first round pick, many worried Chicago would not be able to address the greatest need area with a quality pick, but Gabe Carimi of Wisconsin fell to them at 29 and provides a steady tackle who should start from day one.

2. Development of Receiving Corp
Johnny Knox and Devin Hester combine to be two of the fastest receivers in the game, probably rivaled only by DeShaun Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in Philadelphia. What the Bears' tandem does not have that the Eagles enjoy, is a lot of success and touchdown receptions from their primary receivers. While Knox and Hester have the type of open field moves and quickness to make defenders miss, they have struggled to get the ball in their hands in the first place. Hester's inability to run consistent routes and break out as a legitimate starter makes it difficult for Knox, Olsen and Forte to find open space as Hester does not command the safety help that a player of his speed should demand. The Bears will go as far as their defense takes them, but to avoid a myriad of tight games against mediocre teams, the Bears receivers will need to put more points on the board in 2011.

3. Health
Few teams in 2010, or any season for that matter, enjoyed the level of health like that of the Chicago Bears. With a team with an aging defense and a quarterback who suffered behind a beleaguered offensive line for the first half of the year, Chicago was surprisingly not bitten by the injury bug. All Pro linebacker Brian Urlacher logged a full season for the first time in years and he was joined by an uncharacteristically healthy defense. While Chicago is unlikely to be as fortunate in 2011, the ability to keep key players on the field is essential. Urlacher, Cutler, Peppers, Briggs, Kreutz and company provide a lot of firepower to the Bears roster, but there is not enough depth behind them, particularly at quarterback, to lose multiple star players.

4. Mike Martz and Jay Cutler Synergy
With a pass-first approach and the strong arm of Jay Cutler, fans should expect better than 188 passing yards per game from Chicago. While Matt Forte provides a solid running back for the Bears' offense, being able to pick up third and long situations was a struggle in 2010. While Lovie Smith received a contract extension after making a playoff run, Mike Martz did not enjoy the same job security and will have to prove himself this season. To be successful, Martz will need to get Cutler living within the reads of his system and the protection he needs to get the down field throws to open receivers.

Recommended Reading: Detroit Lions Offseason Confidential Green Bay Packers Offseason Confidential

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Offseason Confidential: Green Bay Packers




It may seem odd to begin a series by including the reigning Super Bowl Champions, but the Green Bay Packers have to complete one of the most difficult tasks asked of any franchise, to repeat as champions. Eight times the champion has repeated in NFL history and only once in the past ten years (New England in 2004, 2005).

In 2010 Green Bay road incredible momentum and the wild card through the NFC playoffs en route to beating the Pittsburgh Steelers and bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to Title Town for the first time since No. 4 led the way in 1997. Now in 2011, the Packers go from the list of favorite breakout teams to the team with a bullseye on their backs. Below are some key story lines to follow as the Packers work toward Lucas Oil Stadium and a return trip to the Super Bowl.

1. Running Back Health
'Running Back By Committee' does not begin to describe how the Packers approached the position in 2010. Short of Matt Flynn lining up as the single back, the Packers used just about everyone else available to take a try at running back. While the Packers were able to rely heavily on rookie James Starks and a myriad of others in 2010, the team saw a serious drop in production with Ryan Grant hitting IR early in the year. As Grant suits up for what should be a full and healthy 2011, expect Green Bay's offense to find some balance.

2. Aaron Rodgers Handling the Pressure
In 2010 Aaron Rodgers was the sexy pick as the next big quarterback. Now, Rodgers firmly has that distinction and the pressure associated with every team gameplanning for him all season. With the NFC North and the rest of the NFL gunning for Rodgers each week, it will be important for him to handle the pressure of playing against some great defenses, but also playing with the pressure of being "The Man" in Title Town. During his first seasons at the helm, Rodgers was able to live in the shadow of being not Brett Favre and instead now will begin carving out his own legacy. With the NFL Lockout still looming large, the Packers have been one of the least active teams in coordinating group workouts, something that could hurt a team recovering from a multitude of injuries. Rodgers is the key again for the Packers this season - making a repeat trip to the Super Bowl is made much easier if Rodgers maintains his playoff form of a year ago.

3. Veteran Experience vs. Veteran Age
While the star of the Super Bowl run was Aaron Rodgers and his championship belt, the veteran experience on the team made the deep playoff run possible. Charles Woodson and Donald Driver had the most to gain and most to lose a year ago. For Woodson and Driver, 2010 was their best shot at winning a championship for their career, and they were able to cash in. The Packers enter the 2011 season with some exciting young talent on defense with BJ Raji, Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk, but in a pass-first league, a shutdown corner like Woodson is essential in locking up the opposition's No. 1 wide receiver. While Greg Jennings gets a lot of hype for being the go-to receiver in Green Bay, it is Donald Driver and his flawless route running that provides so many critical third down conversions. In 2010, Woodson and Driver were leaders on defense and offense and provided the veteran support the team needed; now the Packers need to hope their age doesn't begin to make them a liability as they enter the twilight of their careers.

4. Jermichael Finley
Entering 2010, many sports fans, and almost all Fantasy Football enthusiasts, were labeling Finley as the next Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez. Before Finley got the chance, he also found his way to injured reserve. While Andrew Quarless and Donald Lee were serviceable at the Tight End position, adding Finley to the offense will be needed in Green Bay. To get out of the NFC, the need to go through New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta are likely again this season, and to do so Green Bay will need every offensive weapon available. A torn meniscus is relatively minor in the world of knee injuries, but following a long battle with infection, Finley's recovery time has lengthened and he needs training camp to get back up to football speed.

Recommended Reading: Detroit Lions Offseason Confidential

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Offseason Confidential: Detroit Lions




Today is the first in a series of posts titled "Offseason Confidential" with the initial focus team being the oft-discussed Detroit Lions.

After years of suffering, including a torrid 0-16 season, the Detroit Lions will enter the 2011 season as one of the most hyped teams in the NFL. While I still expect the Lions to fall comfortably in the bottom half of the NFC North, there is a lot of reason for optimism. Below is a breakdown of story lines to follow and big determinants of the team's success in making its first playoff appearance in more than a decade.

1. The Health of Matthew Stafford
While I'm a fan of the adage that "the most important player is the backup quarterback," tell that to those backing up Peyton and Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers or Brett Favre. The health of Matthew Stafford will mean more than any other factor to the Lions in the upcoming season. After enduring the substandard play of backups Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton, the Lions offense needs the consistency of a pocket passer who can complete every throw in the playbook. When healthy, Stafford appears to be exactly that. For the Lions to be a true playoff contender, Stafford will have to shed his glass chin moniker and slide a bit more often to remain a steady contributor at the quarterback position. Injuries have prevented Stafford from showing franchise quarterback potential and 2011 is a make or break season for the former No. 1 overall pick.


2. Front Four Protecting Back Seven
Typically when we talk about protection along the line, we're referring to the left tackle and guard watching the blind side of the quarterback. While that is a necessary story line to follow for the Lions as well, more importantly for this team to stay competitive will be hiding the glaring holes remaining in the defense. The Lions addressed one of their biggest strength areas, the defensive line, with their first overall selection by selecting Nick Fairley No. 12 overall. By picking a potential elite defensive tackle, the Lions now have a defensive front four that rivals teams like Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Green Bay and Chicago. However, the selection did little to help at linebacker and in the secondary. What this pick should allow, is for Detroit to put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and prevent the sketchy corners from having to cover downfield for long periods of time.

3. Continued Draft Success
While Nick Fairley was certainly a "best player available" selection, the Lions made what I would consider a few questionable picks later in the draft as well. Instead of addressing needs at offensive line, cornerback or linebacker, the team played to areas of strength. Boise State Wide Receiver Titus Young and Illinois Running Back Mikel Leshoure play impact positions that both look great in highlight reels, but may not influence games on Sunday as much as a less-flashy selection. The Lions did find a needed outside linebacker with their fifth round selection in Douglas Hogue and offensive line with Johnny Culbreath, but are project players and may not find their way to the 53-man roster. That will put added pressure on the Lions' early selections to carry the class and make large gains on offense. It's clear Detroit is making a push for a breakthrough season and by adding a couple offensive weapons with the return of Matthew Stafford, the Lions will have a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. The big drawback, is scoring 26 points per game might not be enough to win most weeks.

4. Avoid the Slow Start
In each of the last several seasons, Detroit has been out of contention before hitting its bye week. One reason the Lions have so much hype entering 2011 is due to their strong finish to the 2010 season, including four consecutive wins to finish 6-10. For the Lions to make the transition to playoff contender, they will need to have at least 4 wins, before hitting their bye in week 9. Detroit opens with Tampa, Kansas City, Minnesota, Dallas, Chicago, San Francisco, Atlanta and Denver. The second half gets tougher with two against Green Bay, the road half of the Chicago series and games against New Orleans and San Diego.

Recommended Reading: Green Bay Packers Offseason Confidential Home Page