The Lock - Week 4

With our record at only 8-7 on the season against the spread, The Sportsomniac is looking at Week 4 with high hopes due to some soft lines on the books this week.

The Lock:
San Diego -7.5 at Oakland
Luckily for fans of the Silver & Black the Raiders are improved in 2008, but the Chargers have finally found their stride and will have no trouble dismantling the Raiders on their home turf. Expect another showing like the MNF performance this past week against the Jets and a lopsided Chargers victory.

Atlanta +7 at Carolina
The Falcons have overachieved to a 2-1 record and I expect them to do the same in Week 4. While I don't feel comfortable picking them as The Upset, I do see them as a lock to keep it within the spread. Watch for Michael Turner to be the difference maker again for the Falcons.

The Coinflip:
Tampa Bay -1 vs Green Bay
In the closest line of the week, Tampa is favored by only 1 point against Green Bay. While I still see Green Bay as the second best team in the NFC, they will fall in week 4. Tampa is looking strong behind Brian Griese and their defense is playing tough. Were this game played at Lambeau in January the prediction (and the line) would look totally different, but right now Tampa is playing stronger football. Expect a close game won by the Bucs at home.

Take the Points:
Washington +11 at Dallas
Dallas is the elite team in the NFC this year and already has wins over two of the best conference opponents in Green Bay and Philadelphia, but much like Philly, the Redskins will play a tight game this weekend in Big D. The Cowboys should still come away with the win, but Washington will keep this one close.

The Upset:
Cleveland +3.5 at Cincinnati
Cincinnati finally woke up from its early season slumber last week against the Giants and Cleveland continues to struggle. That said, the Bengals aren't ready for their first win of the year and the Browns need it. Look for Cleveland to take the outright upset in this matchup and walk away with a 1-3 record, officially starting the "fire Marvin Lewis" talk in Cincinnati.